US Open: Steve Palmer's day-two analysis and third-round advice

Sky Sports Golf, 7pm Saturday

Story so far
Gary Woodland has somehow turned his putter into a magic wand in the US Open at Pebble Beach, the Kansas man forging a two-shot lead through two rounds at the famous Californian links.

Woodland, available at a pre-tournament 80-1, has traditionally been one of the weakest putters on the US Tour, but he has gained 6.4 strokes on the field with putter in hand over the opening 36 holes at Pebble. He rolled in a monster from the edge of the green at his final hole of round two, reaching nine under par.

Woodland overtook long-time pacesetter Justin Rose, who finished at seven under in the morning. The price of 2013 US Open champion Rose has gone from 28-1 to 6-1 to 9-2 through each round, while an inspired Woodland, seeking a Major breakthrough, has been slashed to 5-1.

Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka, ante-post market principals, are well in the hunt from four and five shots behind respectively. Dustin Johnson and Tiger Woods – seven and nine adrift – need a more spectacular weekend if they are to threaten the US Open trophy.

Leaderboard
-9 Gary Woodland
-7 Justin Rose
-6 Louis Oosthuizen
-5 Aaron Wise, Rory McIlroy
-4 Chez Reavie, Chesson Hadley, Matt Kuchar, Brooks Koepka, Matt Wallace
-3 Henrik Stenson, Adam Scott, Scott Piercy, Jon Rahm, Zach Johnson, Graeme McDowell, Sergio Garcia, Xander Schauffele

Selected others
-2 Francesco Molinari, Dustin Johnson
-1 Jordan Spieth, Phil Mickelson
Par Tiger Woods, Hideki Matsuyama
+1 Rickie Fowler, Jason Day
+2 Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood

Missed cut
+4 Tony Finau, Justin Thomas

Best prices
4 R McIlroy, 9-2 J Rose, 5 G Woodland, 8 B Koepka, 12 L Oosthuizen, 25 D Johnson, X Schauffele, 28 M Kuchar, 33 J Rahm, A Scott, 40 A Wise, 50 H Stenson, S Garcia, M Wallace, 66 J Spieth, T Woods, F Molinari, G McDowell, 100 bar

Day-three advice
Gary Woodland must be shocking himself with his putting form. He came into the US Open languishing 150th on the US Tour putting statistics for this season and he has never finished a year inside the top 100 since 2015.

The suspicion is that weekend pressure will tighten what is typically a poor putting stroke. Woodland is not one of the best finishers on the circuit – he has won three low-grade US Tour titles at the age of 35 – and repelling an army of superstars at Pebble to win a first Major is probably a task beyond him.

Justin Rose will fancy his chances of overcoming a two-shot weekend deficit on Woodland. Rose won the Farmers Insurance Open in January at Torrey Pines, a California track with tricky poa annua greens, and his putting form at Pebble so far will have thrilled him. If the 2013 champ marries his assured rock-rolling with a more typical ball-striking performance over the weekend, he should be a tough nut to crack.

Rose has a Major, a FedEx Cup title, and a total of ten US Tour victories in his locker, so the Ryder Cup star is much better equipped than Woodland for the battle ahead.

Louis Oosthuizen has never won Stateside and has made a habit of runner-up finishes in Majors since his 2010 Open success, while it is probably too early in the career of Aaron Wise for a title of this magnitude.

Rose and Rory McIlroy appear more than ready. McIlroy is another player on the board who is putting way beyond his normal standards, but he has slowly but surely built confidence with that club this season, was awesome with it in the Canadian Open last week and may have turned the corner for good on the greens.

There are no weaknesses in the game of McIlroy at the moment and, aside from an ugly double-bogey seven at the notoriously dangerous 14th in round two, progress has been serene at Pebble. He bounced back from that blunder with two immediate birdies and has been exhibiting more resilience this year.

Brooks Koepka rode his luck in round one and has been full of bravado about his putting – saying recent work with his coach has made his stroke better than ever – but those comments do not match the facts of the first two rounds. He is 62nd in the putting stats and has not looked comfortable on the West Coast greens.

Xander Schauffele and Jon Rahm could be dangerous from the pack on three under par, but Rose and McIlroy appear the most certain title contenders for Sunday.

The likes of Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods will be hoping for a significant change in course conditions from morning to afternoon. Daniel Berger and Tony Finau famously rocketed up the leaderboard from deep in round three of the US Open last year, before a much firmer and devilish set-up greeted the leaders.

A cloudy, cool, calm start to the day, though, seems unlikely to dry the track out too much. More sunshine and more breeze is forecast for the later groups, but they do not seem at a huge disadvantage.
Third-round twoball punters are pointed towards Collin Morikawa (5.48pm UK and Ireland time), Brandon Wu (8.33pm) and Rose (10.45pm).

Morikawa is an immense talent who qualified for the US Open before making a superb start to his professional career in the Canadian Open last week, finishing 14th. The 22-year-old, who is competing in his home state this week, can outclass Andy Pope in round three.

Wu, another lad who has been excelling locally, representing Stanford University with distinction, is also feeling comfortable at Pebble, reaching two under par through 36 holes. Wu is still an amateur, but looks so promising that he must have plenty of hope of outscoring inconsistent US Tour performer Harris English in their round-three clash.

Rose can hang tough in the final twoball and outscore playing partner Woodland. The final Saturday pairing of a US Open is a daunting prospect for the American.

Recommendations
C Morikawa
3pts 5-6 Betfair

J Rose
3pts 10-11 BoyleSports

B Wu
1pt 6-4 bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

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