Steve Palmer's ISPS HANDA World Invitational final-round preview, best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 1.30pm Sunday

Best bet

David Horsey to win the ISPS HANDA World Invitational
2pts 11-4 Hills

Story so far

Jordan Smith will take a one-shot lead into the final round of the ISPS HANDA World Invitational, having carded a Saturday 65 at Galgorm Castle to reclaim top spot.

Smith set the Thursday pace with a 62 at Galgorm, but a 68 at Massereene on Friday saw the Bath man slip behind in the two-course event. A bogey-free third round put the 28-year-old back in front going into the closing 18 holes at Galgorm.

Smith, a 28-1 chance ante-post, has won only one European Tour title - the 2017 Porsche European Open almost exactly four years ago. He is a shade of odds-on across the board to convert his narrow advantage into victory.

David Horsey, a four-time Tour champion at the age of 36, is alone in second place, with a three-shot gap to halfway pacesetter Daniel Hillier. Justin Harding, 11-1 pre-tournament second-favourite, is tied for sixth place, while 10-1 ante-post market leader Andy Sullivan is tailed off, two under par and sharing 47th place.

Leaderboard
-15 Jordan Smith
-14 David Horsey
-11 Daniel Hillier
-10 Darius van Driel, Masahiro Kawamura
-9 Vincent Norrman, Justin Harding

Best prices
10-11 J Smith, 11-4 D Horsey, 14 D Hillier, 16 M Kawamura, 25 D Van Driel, J Harding, 33 V Norrman, 50 bar

Final-round preview

Jordan Smith is getting married in just over a fortnight's time and he will be hoping to head into his wedding as a two-time European Tour champion.

Smith has always been a strong ball-striker, let down by a poor short-game and a suspect temperament. He has been generally brittle in contention since his breakthrough success four years ago - and even that victory in Germany required Alex Levy to miss a three-foot putt for the win at the first playoff hole.

Smith makes no appeal at odds-on, and the 11-4 about David Horsey is more attractive with only one shot separating them. Horsey, a short but accurate driver, can struggle to compete on long layouts, but Galgorm is ideal for the Stockport man to show off his talents.

Racing Post Sport's pre-tournament headline selection, Vincent Norrman, is capable of an explosive finish to close the gap on the pacesetting Englishmen, while young New Zealander Daniel Hillier has shown off his skills this week, but with only two par-fives to gun at, this dynamic duo may have given the frontrunners too much wriggle room.

The final threeball of Smith, Horsey and Hillier is scheduled out at 12.45pm. A cloudy day with light breezes is forecast.

Not got a Paddy Power account? Sign up and get up to £50 in free sports bets

Place a single £10 Sportsbook bet and get money back as a free bet if it loses. There are x5 Free Bets available. Max refund per qualifying bet is £10. Only deposits made via Credit/Debit Card will be eligible for the promotion. Paddy's Rewards Club: Get a £10 free bet when you place 5x bets of £10+. T&Cs apply 18+ begambleaware.org

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport