Racing Post Valspar Championship final-round golf predictions and free tips

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Best bets

Adam Hadwin to win the Valspar Championship
1pt each-way 20-1 general

S Lowry to beat T Hatton in 18-hole match-up bet by 3.25pm
1pt 20-23 bet365

Story so far

Davis Riley stormed to the top of the Valspar Championship leaderboard with a nine-under-par 62 on Saturday - the lowest round of his PGA Tour career - to open a two-stroke lead heading into the final 18 holes.

The American, a two-time Korn Ferry Tour winner, made nine birdies in a bogey-free display at Innisbrook Golf Resort and is 2-1 favourite to break his PGA Tour duck having turned professional in 2019.

Matthew NeSmith, who is also chasing his first PGA Tour win, couldn't replicate his heroic score of 61 on Friday and signed for a two-under-par 69 for his third round, leaving him two shots back and a 9-2 chance to come out on top.

World number eight Justin Thomas, who was leading the betting ahead of round three, is 11-5 to claim the spoils as he sits tied-third a further shot behind alongside defending champion Sam Burns, who is 7-2 to retain his title.

Adam Hadwin then comes next, five off the lead, while Xander Schauffele is part of a group of five players who are likely too far off the pace two further shots in arrears.

Leaderboard
-18 Davis Riley
-16 Matthew NeSmith
-15 Justin Thomas, Sam Burns
-13 Adam Hadwin
-11 Robert Streb, Matt Fitzpatrick, Brian Harman, Troy Merritt, Xander Schauffele
-10 Tyler Duncan, Alex Noren, Tommy Fleetwood

Best prices
2-1 D Riley, 11-5 J Thomas, 7-2 S Burns, 9-2 M NeSmith, 20 A Hadwin, 50 M Fitzpatrick, X Schauffele, 100 bar

Final-round preview

With just 18 holes remaining, there is realistically only a handful of names that remain in contention to lift the trophy.

The quintet sitting on 11-under, which includes Matt Fitzpatrick and Schauffele, will need to produce a perfect run on Sunday while also getting some help from those ahead of them.

Therefore, it should pay to look only at the top five on the leaderboard when searching for the outright winner.

There are doubts over Riley and NeSmith, given the fact they are both chasing maiden wins on the main US circuit and the nerves could kick in.

Thomas, the 2017 US PGA Champion, has recorded three consecutive scores of 66 to keep himself bang in contention and the 11-5 on him will appeal to many, while the 7-2 for defending champion Burns to tear it up over the final 18 holes is also tempting.

However, the 20-1 available on Hadwin to overhaul the four players above him and claim the Valspar Championship for the second time - he won in 2017 - can't be ignored and he gets the nod. His price also appeals in the each-way market, with a fifth of the odds on offer for the first three places.

The Canadian's driving and iron play has been excellent this week, as he ranks T11 in driving accuracy and T12 in greens in regulation, but a cold putter was his nemesis on Saturday, when he lost more than a shot on the field on the strokes-gained-putting metric.

If world number 132 Hadwin can get the flatstick going over the final 18 holes, there is every chance he could add to the 17 birdies he has already recorded in this tournament, which leaves him tied for fourth in this category, and make a beeline for glory.

Also, those fancying an 18-hole match-up bet for the final round may do well to look at a battle further down the leaderboard between Shane Lowry and Tyrrell Hatton, with the Irishman 20-23 to come out on top.

Lowry, who won The Open in 2019, shot a second-straight round of 68 on Saturday to move on to eight-under for the tournament, while Hatton signed for a 70.

His waywardness off the tee, which has him at under 49 per cent for driving accuracy in the tournament, has put him in trouble around this course.

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