Steve Palmer's Mexico Open predictions & free golf betting tips plus bet £10 and get a £30 free bet with Kwiff

When to bet on the Mexico Open

By 1.30pm on Thursday

It's also worth noting that Kwiff are offering a £30 free bet when new customers bet £10 on golf 

Where can I watch the Mexico Open

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 3pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Mexico Open predictions

Nicolai Hojgaard
4pts each-way 16-1 Hills

Erik van Rooyen
2pts each-way 35-1 Hills

Davis Thompson
2pts each-way 35-1 bet365

Cameron Champ
1pt each-way 50-1 Betfair, Hills, Power

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Steve Palmer's Mexico Open preview

Jon Rahm's absence has been felt strongly at the start of this PGA Tour season – and the people of Mexico are perhaps the most disappointed by his LIV defection. Rahm has lit up Vidanta Vallarta in the previous two seasons, winning in 2022, then firing a Saturday 61 on his way second place last year. The Spaniard will be at home this week, as the fractured golfing landscape further punishes golf fans.

Tony Finau has finished second and first in the two Mexico Opens at Vidanta Vallarta, so has assumed favouritism. His putting stroke has looked awful lately, though, and there is no urge to take the short odds for what seems certain to be an extremely low-scoring week.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Nicolai Hojgaard 16-1

The Vidanta Vallarta assignment looks made for Nicolai Hojgaard and a PGA Tour breakthrough could be coming for the Danish dude on Sunday. The swashbuckling 22-year-old is a power-packed, aggressive player who will be licking his lips about tackling a wide-open layout in fine weather.

Hojgaard has three DP World Tour victories under his belt and the latest of them was in a high-class DP World Tour Championship in November last year. He started this season in Dubai as well, playing nicely, then made an incredible Torrey Pines debut in his first PGA Tour outing of 2024.

A runner-up effort in the Farmers Insurance Open was further evidence that Hojgaard is quickly becoming a member of the golfing elite. He has followed up with 31st place at Pebble Beach and 39th at Riviera in two Signature events.

The Ryder Cup winner has been handling course debuts and top-class opposition – only 11 players outscored him in the final round at Riviera on Sunday – but this week he faces a layout he already knows and a poor field. The first of many PGA Tour titles could be the result.

Hojgaard peppered pins at Vidanta Vallarta last year, having a bad week on and around the greens, finishing 33rd. He was world number 122 at the time, with hardly any Stateside experience, but returns as world number 34. He was runner-up in the Corales Puntacana Championship last year on paspalum grass and is back on that surface this week.

Next best bet

Erik van Rooyen 35-1

South African star Erik van Rooyen triumphed on the paspalum fairways of El Camaleon when winning the World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico in November – his second PGA Tour title.

The career progression of Van Rooyen has been steady, with a victory on the Sunshine Tour followed by one on the Challenge Tour, then the DP World Tour, before he established himself on the PGA Tour. He turns 34 on tournament-eve and could have a trophy to put with his birthday cake on Sunday.

Van Rooyen finished 33rd on his Mexico Open debut last year. He missed two cuts prior to the event – and missed seven consecutive cuts afterwards – yet still banked a healthy cheque at Vidanta Vallarta. This time he has arrived in much better nick.

Other selections

Davis Thompson 35-1
Cameron Champ 50-1

Former world number one amateur Davis Thompson appears set to shed his PGA Tour maiden tag soon. He won on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022, before finishing runner-up to Rahm in The American Express last season, and the 24-year-old has been in solid form for seven months.

Thompson has played in Mexico only once before, finishing 15th at El Camaleon last year, and he should fall in love with this week's layout. A share of 15th place in Phoenix last time out, with four under-par rounds, was hugely encouraging.

Cameron Champ is playing better than the bare form suggests. He started the year missing the cut by a shot in the Sony Open at a course which does not suit him, then missed the cut in the AmEx despite signing off with a 65 which was beaten by only 13 players in the field that day. Champ missed the cut by a shot in the Farmers despite a second-round 67, then missed the cut on the mark again in Phoenix.

Expect these narrow failures to be quickly forgotten when Champ tees up at a course he loves this week. He has finished sixth and eighth in this event the last two years. The Californian had missed his previous six PGA Tour cuts when he arrived in Mexico last year, but the three-time Tour champion carded four rounds in the 60s.

Course guide for the Mexico Open

• Course Vidanta Vallarta, Vallarta, Mexico
• Prize money $8.1m ($1.386m to the winner)
• Length 7,456 yards
• Par 71 - four par-fives; nine par-fours; five par-threes
• Field 144 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Tony Finau (24), Nicolai Hojgaard (34), Emiliano Grillo (40), Ryan Fox (41), Thorbjorn Olesen (59)
• Course records - 72 holes 260 Tony Finau (2023) 18 holes 61 Jon Rahm (2023)
• Course winner taking part Tony Finau
• When to bet By 1.30pm on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 3pm on Thursday
• Time difference Vallarta is six hours behind the UK and Ireland
• Last week – Genesis Invitational 1 H Matsuyama (75-1), T2 W Zalatoris (50-1), L List (125-1), T4 A Hadwin (100-1), P Cantlay (18-1), X Schauffele (16-1), 7 H English (100-1), 8 T Hoge (125-1)
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview The flat Greg Norman design, opened in 2015 and Mexico Open host since 2022, has paspalum grass fairways and greens (like El Camaleon, home of the annual PGA Tour event in Mexico, the World Wide Technology Championship). The targets off the tee are generous, while the greens are large, but they are well protected by deep bunkers and are full of demanding undulations. The course runs along the Ameca River. There are a total of 106 bunkers on the track. The seventh is a driveable par four measuring just 297 yards
• Story of last year An inspired Tony Finau cruised to a three-shot victory over Jon Rahm, reversing the result from the previous year
• Weather forecast Sunny, warm and calm throughout
• Type of player suited to the challenge Long driving seems to be the key to success, with the two Vallarta leaderboards dominated by driving-distance leaders, which makes sense on a long, flat open track
• Key attribute Power

Steve Palmer's Mexico Open key stat

Eighteen of the 23 PGA Tour events staged in Mexico have been won by an American

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