GAA tips: Saturday Gaelic football betting previews

Dublin v Mayo
Croke Park, 7pm Saturday

TV: Eir Sports 1

James Horan could not have wished for a better start to his second stint as Mayo manager, banking maximum points from their first three games in Division 1, but the honeymoon period could come to an abrupt halt on his return to Croke Park.

Mayo commenced their campaign with a minimum-margin win over Roscommon before an eye-catching nine-point demolition of Tyrone.

While that display was attractive and it arrived away from home, it might be foolish to read too much into it.

It was clear in their opening encounter that Tyrone are trying to alter their style of play. They tried to commit more players into each attack but were often outnumbered in crucial areas. It was a very uncharacteristic display and Mayo took full advantage.

Mayo made it three wins from three on home soil with five points to spare over Cavan, but this is their first real test and it looks like an examination they will fail.

Some will argue that Mayo are meeting Dublin at the perfect time, given that the All-Ireland champions have been beaten in two of their opening three games, but the opposite could be true. The Dubs are wounded and Mayo could get the backlash.

Dublin didn't play particularly poorly against Kerry and almost snatched victory in the closing minutes having looked dead and buried. That game ought to have brought them on. It was a bruising encounter played at championship pace and Mayo have faced nothing like that so far.

If Dublin are to have any aspirations of reaching yet another league final, they cannot contemplate defeat.

Evan Regan and Fionn McDonagh have impressed for Mayo but they won't get the same time and space on the ball as they did against Cavan.

Dublin are fancied to defy a three-point handicap and this could be a encounter where goals are hard to come by.

Mayo have only conceded an injury-time goal to Roscommon in their opening three games. They kept clean sheets against Tyrone and Cavan.

Dublin coughed up two goals to Monaghan in round one and Kerry raised a green flag last time, but the Dubs denied Galway any goal chances in round two and they tend to be tighter at the back at Croke Park.

Jim Gavin is sure to have worked on the defensive side of things since they conceded 1-18 to Kerry and it is hard to envisage Horan going gung-ho in an attempt to thwart the best team in the country.

The 13-2 Paddy Power are offering about no goals looks too big and even more attractive is the 17-10 available for under 1.5 match goals.

Recommendations
Dublin -3
3pts 10-11 Hills
No goals
1pt 13-2 Paddy Power
Under 1.5 goals
2pts 17-10 Paddy Power

Tyrone v Monaghan
Healy Park, 7pm Saturday

TV: Eir Sports 2, Premier Sports 1

Tyrone look there for the taking and Monaghan are fancied to cash in on their vulnerability.

For most of the last decade, Tyrone have stuck to the tried and tested approach of defending in numbers and playing on the counter-attack, turning defence into attack with swift hand-passing. They were the second-best team in the country last year playing like that but have tried to tweak their style this spring.

They looked clueless against Mayo in round two and it wasn't much better in their stalemate with Roscommon, although there was a huge improvement in the second half with the assistance of the wind.

Monaghan have failed to confirm the promise of their opening success over Dublin and two defeats on the trot against Roscommon and Galway have quelled their quest for league honours.

It seems the better the team, the better Monaghan play. They were highly-charged going into their duel with the Dubs and there were signs of complacency in the last two rounds. Perhaps they were beginning to believe the hype.

This Tyrone test comes at the perfect time and Monaghan are equipped to deal with the challenge. They have sufficient firepower up front to trouble Tyrone and backing them at odds-against to score 14 points or more looks terrific value.

Tyrone conceded 2-13 to Mayo in round two and Roscommon racked up ten points in the first half of their draw in round three.

Tyrone are still in transition mode and Conor McManus, Jack McCarron and Conor McCarthy can help steer Monaghan to a crucial victory. The layers might have this one wrong.

Recommendations
Monaghan
3pts 29-20 bet365
Monaghan over 13.5 points
3pts 11-10 Paddy Power

Cork v Meath
Pairc Ui Rinn, 7pm Saturday

Meath can claim a third victory from four outings away to Cork but they are priced accordingly and there is little value in backing Andy McEntee's men at their current odds.
Far more interesting is the 6-4 about both teams finding the net.

Cork have scored a goal in two of their three games and if not for the brilliance of goalkeeper Mark Donnellan, they would have raised a few green flags against Kildare too.

Meath carved open the Armagh defence a fortnight ago, scoring two goals in their 2-13 to 0-13 victory, and their pace up front could cause Cork problems.

This has all the makings of a high-scoring encounter in Pairc Ui Rinn.

Recommendation
Both teams to score a goal
2pts 6-4 Paddy Power

Follow us on Twitter

Like us on Facebook