Monaghan ready to prove they are a top-six side

From 5pm Saturday

It is about time Monaghan proved themselves to be a top-six side and, with revenge on their agenda against Down, the stage is set for Malachy O'Rourke's charges to belatedly stake the claim for All-Ireland honours. They are strongly fancied to defy a four-point handicap.

That might sound strange given that Down were full value for their two-point triumph (1-14 to 0-15) over Monaghan in the Ulster semi-final but an entirely different scenario could unfold at headquarters this time.

Monaghan entered that outing as red-hot favourites following facile wins over Fermanagh and Cavan and there is no doubt that complacency set in.

Secondly, Down bullied them. Conor McManus was hit with a nasty blow in the opening minutes and that set the tone for the remainder of the game.

Thirdly, Down have since been tormented by Tyrone and beaten provincial finalists have a poor record in the qualifiers, especially ones who have been heavily defeated.

Croke Park will suit Monaghan more than it will suit Down. They may have a poor recent record at headquarters but those statistics are based on some really tough battles against the top teams. They have not faced a team as poor as Down at Croke Park in the last decade.

Monaghan are best when moving the ball at space, attacking in droves and getting possession to Jack McCarron and McManus quickly once the halfway line has been passed.

The extra space will be music to the ears of the so-far disappointing McCarron, who has all too often been bottled up in Ulster, and that could allow him to strike up a better partnership with McManus.

Kieran Hughes has been the one shining light for Monaghan over the last few months and he should win the midfield battlezone.

Down surely can't beat Monaghan without scoring a goal and that has been a big problem for them this season despite digging themselves out of the doldrums, avoiding relegation to Division 3 and reaching an Ulster final.

Down do not score enough goals, it’s as simple as that. They got only three in seven league outings in Division 2 and failed to find the net against Armagh and Tyrone in the Ulster championship.

Their sole goal during their surprise voyage to the provincial decider was a penalty, dubiously awarded during the second half of their win over Monaghan. They often create only one goal chance in a game and they have not been clinical enough to even take that in most of their outings.

Betway are offering 11-5 about no Down goal and that is too big. Also on the generous side is the 8-1 with BoyleSports about no goals in the game as Monaghan are not a goalscoring machine themselves and tend to take easy points rather than go for the jugular.

The clash between Armagh and Kildare could be entirely different as both sets of forwards are capable of racking up big tallies and plenty of goals could be on the menu.

Kildare did remarkably well to keep the scoreline respectable against Dublin. Conceding two quick goals to the All-Ireland champions would usually spell disaster but the Lilywhites dusted themselves down and managed to contribute to an enjoyable encounter.

Kildare deserve to be favourite for their tussle with Armagh but this could be a banana skin for Cian O'Neill's charges.

Armagh have their swagger back and trumping Tipperary in their back yard is not to be sniffed at. Jamie Clarke looks hungry and ready to explode and he could do serious damage to this Kildare defence.

Paddy Power are offering a special of 6-4 for him to score a point from play in each half and that is worth taking. Also worth a wager is the 10-1 on offer with BoyleSports about him being named man of the match on Sky Sports. He is a class act and should be suited to Croke Park.

Recommendations
Monaghan -4
3pts 6-5 Paddy Power
No goals in Monaghan v Down
1pt 8-1 BoyleSports
No Down goal
2pts 11-5 Betway
J Clarke to score a point from play in both halves
2pts 6-4 Paddy Power
Jamie Clarke man of the match
1pt 10-1 BoyleSports