All-Ireland Football Championship final predictions and Dublin v Kerry betting tips: Champions can retain their title

Where to watch the All-Ireland Football Championship final

Dublin v Kerry
RTE Two, BBC Two Northern Ireland & BBC iPlayer, 3.30pm Sunday

Best bets

Kerry -1
4pts 6-4 Boylesports

Kerry to win by four, five or six points
1pt 11-2 Boylesports, Paddy Power

Paul Geaney to score two or more points
2pts 11-8 Boylesports

Paudie Clifford to score two or more points
2pts 11-8 Boylesports

Paul Geaney Man of the Match
1pt 33-1 Boylesports

Paudie Clifford Man of the Match
1pt 14-1 Paddy Power  

Red card to be shown
2pts 15-8 Boylesports

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All-Ireland Football Championship final predictions

Then there were two. The big two. The best two. The only two that really matter. It is the final neutrals wanted and so close to call that Boylesports make the pair 11-10 each of two to win in 70 minutes. The rest of the layers make Kerry marginal favourites but they are no shorter than 10-11 anywhere. 

Kerry and Dublin feature in by far the most chapters of Gaelic football folklore and last year's champions can add their name to the All-Ireland roll of honour for a 39th time. And, it could be more emphatic than the market suggests. 

Dublin have been the dominant force over the last decade and have won eight All-Ireland titles since 2011. But they haven't won either of the last two and the theory that they are more powerful with experienced soldiers Stephen Cluxton, Jack McCaffrey and Paul Mannion back in the camp may not hold water.

There is a consensus that Dublin would have beaten Kerry in last year's All-Ireland semi-final had they, or Con O'Callaghan for that matter, been playing. 

But Kerry completely outplayed Dublin in the first half and, although they went in 1-8 to 0-6 to the good at half-time, Sean O'Shea saw his penalty saved by Evan Comerford shortly before the change of ends. Had that been converted Kerry probably would have been out of sight. 

They went in five up, but it should have been eight. It could have been game over. 

Dublin took full advantage of that reprieve and when Ciaran Kilkenny levelled the game in the 69th minute it seemed like there was only going to be one winner. Yet Kerry still won thanks to a mammoth and memorable kick from O'Shea. They got there in the end. 

Are Dublin really that much better now than they were then? Having players return to the fold after absences can upset the emotion of a group. Maybe the Dubs are different, but Dessie Farrell has put blooding new talent in the cooler for now, and uncorked some old stagers instead. This could be when that approach gets found out, against the very best. 

The best half of football played by any team in this year's championship was not Dublin's second half destruction of a lethargic Mayo side in the quarter-final but rather Kerry's dismantling of Tyrone at the same stage. That was the day Jack O'Connor's charges showed they were well up for the fight of defending their title. 

Their defensive structure was superb, they tackled brilliantly and positionally they were extremely solid. Tyrone never got a sniff, not even the Canavan brothers or Darren McCurry who would torment most other sides. 

Kerry have evolved in 2023. They are not the swashbuckling side who burst on to the scene with O'Shea and David Clifford. They are managing games now and everything is built on solid foundations. Jason Foley and Tadhg Morley form the spine down the middle while Graham and Tom O'Sullivan are annoying man-markers capable of frustrating the very best forwards. 

With the experience of Paul Murphy and the speed and agility of Gavin White, the Kerry rearguard unit feels safer than Dublin's does. Derry did expose them at times with direct running but O'Connor will have worked on that and they are unlikely to be so open this time. 

All the talk in the lead-up to the final has been about both attacks, but it may be the best defence that wins it and that is Kerry's. Mick Fitzsimons will presumably once again take Clifford and try to hold him to maybe five points or less from play. Anything better than that will be a bonus. That duel will be fascinating. 

The two players of interest from a betting point of view are Paudie Clifford and Paul Geaney. Neither have had their best season, but there have been glimpses of brilliance from both in the knockout stages and the final could see them flourish. 

Geaney has unfinished business in All-Ireland finals. He missed two glorious chances in the 2019 decider against Dublin, including a penalty saved by Cluxton, and was taken off at half-time in last year's four-point triumph over Galway. He is 11-8 to score two points or more and that looks value. 

The same applies to Paudie Clifford. He is the same price to reach the same total and that looks generous given he scored two points in last year's decider from a much deeper role and also got two points against Dublin in last year's semi-final. He has been on the scoresheet in the quarter-final and semi-final this year too. 

David Clifford is unsurprisingly very short in the man-of-the-match market at around about 3-1, but there will be so much focus on denying him space, so his brother Paudie and Geaney should see a lot more of the ball. 

As well as backing both of them to score two points or more, it is worth having a nibble on both in the RTE man-of-the-match market at big prices. Clifford, in particular, is coming to the boil nicely. 

Finally, the best referee in the country has been given the whistle for the biggest game of the year. David Gough plays by the rules and won't be afraid to make big decisions. With that in mind, the 15-8 about a red card being shown is worth taking. That is as short as 6-4 with some firms. Tempers are sure to flare at some point given what's at stake.

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