What to watch out for over the second half of the season in the Premier League

How many points will Manchester City have by the end of the season? They topped the Premier League with 47 points after 19 games. Then they added three points from the first game in the second half of their season.

What number will Norwich reach? They are bottom of the Premier League with ten points from 19 games. How many points will they have after another 19 games?

You could simply double the half-season totals to make end-of-season predictions. But I think that most likely Manchester City’s final haul will be slightly lower and Norwich’s slightly higher. I say this because of what tended to happen in the second half of previous seasons.

A good starting point for thinking about the second half of this season is to look at what changed between the first and second halves of previous seasons.

The graph pictured above was compiled with data from the last 26 completed Premier League seasons, all those in which teams played 38 games – 1995-96 to 2020-21.

The bottom axis is for points won in the first half of a season. The side axis shows the average number of points won in the second half of a season. The jagged blue line is real data. The pink line illustrates what would have happened if teams had won the same number of points in the second half of a season as they won in the first half.

If you look at the graph you will notice something straight away. You will notice that teams who did well in the first half of a season tended to do less well in the second half – although generally they still did better than most others – and teams who did badly in the first half of a season tended to do less badly in the second half – although generally they still fared worse than most others.

For nearly all of the teams who did well in the first half of a season the blue line is below the pink line, and for nearly all of the teams who did badly in the first half of a season the blue line is above the pink line.

If you stare closely at the graph you will notice something else. In the second half of a season good teams deteriorated by less than bad teams improved.

I have highlighted this tendency before. Good form is more reliable as a guide to future results than bad form. It is harder to be spectacularly good by accident than spectacularly bad.

In fact, I see on that wiggly blue line three distinct parts.

The first part shows that teams who in the first half of a season did really badly – collecting, say, fewer than 12 points – often became tailed off. Overall they still improved in the second half, but not by much.

The second part is for teams whose points total in the first half of the season was between about 12 and 29. For those teams nearly all of the points differential in the first half of the season could be attributed to luck. Because in the second half of the season there was hardly any points differential.

Consider, for example, teams who in the first half of a season won 12 points and teams who in the first half of a season won 29 points. Over the first half of the season they were separated by 17 points. Teams who won 12 points in the first half of a season averaged 21 points in the second half, and teams who won 29 points in the first half of a season averaged 25 points in the second half. Over the second half of a season such teams were separated on average by only four points.

The third part of the blue line is for teams whose points total in the first half of a season was from about 30 upwards. These teams usually deteriorated in the second half of the season but usually not by much, suggesting that their high points totals in the first half of the season were attributable more to skill than to luck.

If there is one general lesson in the graph, it is this. In the second half of a season teams tended to deliver less than the first half of the season would have led you to expect – less goodness from good teams and less badness from bad teams.

So what are the potential implications for Manchester City and Norwich?

I suggested earlier on that the graph could be a starting point for thinking about the second half of this season. I should stress here that it is only a starting point.

The graph can tell us the average number of points won in the second half of a season by teams who in the first half of a season won the same number of points as this team. Is it right, though, to compare this team to them? Are there reasons for thinking second half of the season expectations for this team should be different – higher or lower, by a little or a lot?

Manchester City won 47 points in the first half of this season. The graph shows that teams who won 47 points in the first half of previous seasons averaged 42 points in the second half. Add 47 to 42 and you get 89. To me, though, Manchester City seem a bit more dependable even than those other good teams. And they have already won the first of their last 19 games. My best guess for City’s end of season total would be higher than 89 – say, 92.

Norwich have ten points after 19 games. From the graph we can see that teams who in previous seasons had ten points after 19 games averaged 16 points from the next 19 games. Add ten to 16 and you get 26. That area of the graph is really jumpy but a total of 26 still seems a reasonable reading. I do not feel that Norwich are better or worse than earlier teams who did as badly in the first half of a season. My best estimate for their end of season total would be 26.

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