What should we expect of Norwich and Sheffield United in their new divisions?

One up, one down. Norwich have been promoted to the Premier League, Sheffield United have been relegated to the Championship. How might they get on?

I am going to talk in general terms about the records of teams who move between divisions. What is the relationship between results in the old division and results in the new division?

There are other influences on achievements in a different environment, but we do not know as much about those yet. I will touch on them as we go along.

I studied teams promoted and relegated between the Championship and Premier League across 24 pairs of seasons – starting with 1995-96 and 1996-97, ending with 2018-19 and 2019-20. In all those seasons teams played 46 games in the Championship and 38 in the Premier League.

Promoted teams averaged 87 points in the Championship then 39 in the Premier League. Their average finishing position in the Premier League was 15th.

Averages are averages. Some teams fared better, others worse. Fifty-seven per cent of promoted teams survived their first season in the Premier League, the other 43 per cent went straight back to the Championship.

Norwich have 90 points with three games still to play. They already have a stronger record than most teams promoted from the Championship.

The better a team did in the Championship the better they were likely to do in the Premier League. If a team gained more than 87 points in the Championship they were likely to gain more than 39 points in the Premier League, but not as many more. If a team gained fewer than 87 points in the Championship they were likely to gain fewer than 39 points in the Premier League, but not as many fewer.

Differences between teams tended to shrink from one season to the next. Even after allowing for the fact that they played fewer games in the Premier League.

There are several possible explanations. Results are not a perfect expression of ability. They contain signal and noise. Even if a team have the same skill as they did last season, there is no reason to think they will get the same luck. And they might not have the same skill. Athletic prowess is constantly evolving. Also, between seasons, clubs buy and sell players.

A powerful indicator of Premier League performances is how much players are paid. It is a proxy for how good they are. If a player is good enough to be offered more money somewhere else he will go.

Next season Norwich will have one of the smallest payrolls in the Premier League – maybe the smallest but at this stage there is some doubt, not least because we do not know all the teams who will be in the Premier League. Norwich’s Championship record will anticipate about 41 Premier League points. Their payroll will anticipate fewer.

Norwich have been promoted before with more than 87 points then gained fewer than 39 points in the Premier League. This does not mean it will happen again – or that it will not. There are no certainties here.

Two seasons ago Norwich won the Championship with 94 points and Sheffield United were runners-up with 89. Norwich, arguably, under-achieved last season in the Premier League. They finished bottom with 21 points. Sheffield United, arguably, overachieved. They finished ninth with 54 points. This season the opposite has happened. Sheffield United, probably, have under-achieved. They are last with just 14 points and only six games to play.

Over those past 24 pairs of seasons, relegated teams averaged 31 points in the Premier League then 70 in the Championship. Their average finishing position in the Championship was eighth. Seventy-one per cent stayed in the Championship, 26 were promoted straight back to the Premier League – and three per cent were relegated again to League One.

If a team gained more than 31 points in the Premier League they tended to gain more than 70 points in the Championship, but not as many more. If a team gained fewer than 31 points in the Premier League they tended to gain fewer than 70 points in the Championship, but not as many fewer.

Sheffield United’s Premier League record is likely to anticipate about 59 points in the Championship. Or 14th place. Their budget will anticipate more.

Relegated teams could set a record in the Championship

Norwich lead the Championship, Watford are in the second automatic promotion place and Bournemouth are in one of the playoff places.

It is possible that the three teams relegated last season will all be promoted this season. Possible, though still more likely not to happen. Bournemouth are a much bigger doubt than Watford.

It has never happened before.

Three up and down between the top two divisions started in season 1973-74. It has applied for most seasons since.

Six times two of the relegated teams went straight back up.

In 2006-07 Sunderland and Birmingham filled the automatic promotion places and West Bromwich finished fourth then lost 1-0 in the playoffs final.

An even closer call came in 1997-98 when Nottingham Forest and Middlesbrough occupied the top two spots and Sunderland finished third then lost the playoffs final on penalties – 7-6 following a 4-4 draw after extra-time.

The same season Barnsley, Bolton and Crystal Palace were all relegated after one season in the top division. It was the only time that has happened.

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