Tour de France predictions and cycling betting tips: Dylan Groenewegen gives value in the points classification

Where to watch the Tour de France

All stages live on Eurosport 1 & ITV4, starts 11am on Saturday.

Best bets

Dylan Groenewegen to win points classification
1pt 33-1 each-way bet365
Mark Cavendish to win a stage
1pt 11-10 general
Pello Bilbao to win mountains classification
1pt 100-1 bet365
Carlos Rodriguez to win young rider classification
2pts 6-4 Betfair, Paddy Power

Tour de France predictions

The beauty of the Tour de France is that there is something for everyone, with jerseys for the speed merchants, mountain goats and new kids on the block.

The green one primarily concerns the sprinters who might bemoan a case of No Paris, No Party with the famous final-day dash down the Champs-Elysees absent this year due to the Olympics. 

There are still eight designated flat days and last year's winner Jasper Philipsen is the rider to beat. He won four stages in 2023 but his form has tailed off since winning March's Milan-San Remo and the odds-on about the 26-year-old make it worthwhile exploring elsewhere. 

There are doubts over Wout van Aert as he continues to build back following a crash in March, while Mads Pedersen is consistent but not lightning quick.

Therefore, look at five-time individual Tour stage winner Dylan Groenewegen. The recently crowned Dutch champion also showed up well in the Classics and won a stage at the recent Tour of Slovenia, making him a worthy each-way punt.

Mark Cavendish's final Tour is another subplot to follow as he targets a record 35th stage victory. Astana Qazaqstan have selected a sensational support team to form his lead-out train and after the Manxman crashed out in 2023, back him to make amends at some point.

Always the toughest to call, uncertainty over form means it is best to avoid the GC men when assessing the mountains classification.

Giulio Ciccone's win in 2023 ended a three-year run in which the overall winner also claimed the polka-dot jersey and the Italian is enjoying a decent year, finishing eighth at the Criterium du Dauphine. 

With Lidl-Trek leader Tao Geoghegan Hart missing due to illness, Ciccone should get opportunities to attack and is likely to improve as the race progresses after overcoming a bout of flu.

A couple of other riders to look for both come from Team Bahrain Victorious. Debutant Santiago Buitrago is their designated leader, but the team may relieve the pressure on the young Colombian by freeing up 2023 stage winner Wout Poels, who knows how to grind it out over three weeks.

Colleague Pello Bilbao also won a stage on his way to finishing sixth last year, albeit over 13 minutes down, and his three-figure price is exciting.

Finally, the white jersey is awarded for the best young rider. The competition is wide open now Tadej Pogacar is ineligible, with Carlos Rodriguez the pick. 

The Spaniard won a stage and finished fifth last year and he and Egan Bernal are backed by a stacked Team Ineos squad. He has recorded a string of notable top-ten finishes in week-long races, including the overall at the Tour de Romandie, and is likely to leak less time than someone like Remco Evenepoel.

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