Pakistan v Bangladesh: World Cup betting preview, TV channel, team news and tips

TV: Sky Cricket & Main Event, 10.30am Friday

Lord's, London

Cricket punters have learned over the years that it is dangerous to write off Pakistan but their World Cup campaign will surely come to an end at Lord’s on Friday.

Sarfaraz Ahmed’s men need an outlandish run-rate turnaround to pip New Zealand to the final semi-final place – if they score 350, for example, they would have to bowl out Bangladesh for 38 in order to qualify.

The Tigers lost 31 of their first 32 ODI meetings with Pakistan but, more pertinently, they have won the last four and their form at this World Cup suggests they should be shorter than 17-10.

Best bets
To all intents and purposes this is a dead rubber – Pakistan will be out mathematically if they lose the toss and Bangladesh bat first – but a talented Tigers side can sign off a solid campaign with a fourth victory.

They struggled against the batting power of England and Australia but competed well in a 28-run loss to India last time out, reducing the favourites from 237-2 to 314-9.

Aside from their games against the big three, Bangladesh have been impressive, beating Afghanistan, South Africa and the West Indies and almost pulling off an amazing comeback in their two-wicket defeat to New Zealand.

They scored 320-plus totals against the Proteas, the Windies and Australia, so their batting is clearly in good order and ace all-rounder Shakib Al Hasan is second in the tournament runscoring chart.

Pakistan permutations
A Pakistan victory would take them level on points (11) and wins (five) with fourth-placed New Zealand.

However, the Black Caps have a far better net run-rate so Pakistan must bat first and win by a huge margin – by 311 runs if they score 350, for example, or by 316 runs if they score 400 – in order to progress to the semi-finals.

If they bowl first there is no way they can qualify and Sky Bet make them 400-1 to win the World Cup.

Pakistan were bowled out for 105 in their opening game against the Windies and scraped past Afghanistan, who traded at 1-3 in-play, in their most recent outing at Headingley.

Mustafizur Rahman looks back to his best for Bangladesh, taking five wickets in the defeat to India, and the underdogs are worth backing to make it five wins in a row over Pakistan.

Haris Sohail’s runs line is quoted at 28.5 and the Pakistan middle-order man has the confidence and the range of attacking strokes to exceed that mark.

Haris lost his place in the 11 after being dismissed for eight in the rout against the West Indies but he has roared back with 89 against South Africa, 68 against New Zealand and 27 against the Afghans in his last three games.

Recommendations
Bangladesh
2pts 17-10 Betfair
H Sohail to score over 28.5 runs
2pts 5-6 Betway, Coral, Ladbrokes

Back Bangladesh with Paddy Power here

Team news
Pakistan
Wahab Riaz batted with an injured finger to help seal the tense win over Afghanistan and the paceman may not be risked.

Bangladesh
Mahmudullah missed the India defeat with a calf problem but could return.

Venue
England beat India by 86 runs at Lord’s last summer and all three 2019 World Cup matches have also ended in comprehensive wins for the team batting first.

Pace bowlers have thrived at the venue during this tournament and half of the wickets to fall (26 of 52) have been taken by left-arm quicks.

Weather
Sunny and dry, 26C.

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport