Will the draw prove key once again with a huge field lining up for the Group 3 Oak Tree?

It’s no secret the draw can have a significant impact on the results of races over this 7f trip at Goodwood and, although it has a bigger effect later in the week when the false rail is removed, it hasn’t been easy to score from the widest stalls in this contest in recent seasons.

The last eight winners have come from five, one, six, three, ten, one, two and two, and the horse who won from ten was Billesdon Brook. She was good enough to win a 1,000 Guineas.

With 16 runners declared this year it’s going to be even more difficult to win from a wide stall and favourite Fast Response, who relishes cut in the ground, has the advantage of stall one.

Breege has recorded Racing Post Ratings of 96 and 98 on going with soft in the description and she has also been fortunate with the draw, coming from stall three.

She looks like the best of the three-year-olds in a race in which there has been an even spread of ages in the last ten years. The Classic generation have had five wins and ten places from 74 runners and the older horses are also five wins and ten places but from a fewer 52 runners.

French trainer Francois Rohaut won three times in three years from 2015-17 and twice with four-year-olds. Yann Barberot sends Sicilian Defense from France in a bid to emulate him, but a wide draw in stall 15 won’t make things easy and the same can be said for Spanish raider Samedi Rien. She is two stalls inside in 13 for trainer Guillermo Arizkorreta Elosegui.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

'Fast Response could easily go well'

Fast Response bids to provide Nick Bradley Racing with back-to-back successes in the Oak Tree Stakes following Oscula's win last season.

The four-year-old has raced four times in Listed company this season and was narrowly denied by Holguin on soft ground at Chester last time.

Karl Burke sent out a career-best 25 winners last month, including victories in the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks and the Prix de Cabourg last Sunday.

"She should love the ground and has a decent draw, while she ran well at Chester last time," said Burke. "With all that in mind, she could easily go well."

What they say

Yann Barberot, trainer of Sicilain Defense
I wanted to run her at Goodwood last year as a three-year-old and she has the right profile for this race. She's not drawn well in 15 but she is a hold-up filly, so it's not the end of the world. Soft ground is fine but I wouldn't want it to get really deep. It should help her make ground from the back and I think she has a chance.

Saeed bin Suroor, trainer of White Moonlight
She has done well this season and deserves a chance back at this level after her Listed win at Chelmsford last time, which she has come out of well.

John Quinn, trainer of Breege
She ran a mighty race at Ascot and we were always thinking about coming here. She's run well over course and distance, and won't mind some ease in the ground.

Charlie Appleby, trainer of Dream Of Love
We're looking forward to dropping back to seven furlongs with her after she ran a creditable race at Royal Ascot. She has run well on soft ground before, so conditions won’t inconvenience her too much, and she should be a live player.

Adam Ryan, assistant trainer of Glenlaurel
She's run solidly all year. This is a big ask but it's an open race and she's versatile on any ground.

Ralph Beckett, trainer of Juliet Sierra
It hasn't clicked this year but we think a switch to seven furlongs might unlock her. She's in good form.

Roger Varian, trainer of Olivia Maralda
She’s run three good races and I’d just be a bit worried if the ground became very testing, should they get all this rain on Tuesday night. With the way she went round Epsom, she'll love seven furlongs around a track like Goodwood. She ran very well in the Jersey at Royal Ascot and this is a lovely race for her, so I hope they don’t get too much rain.
Reporting by Jonathan Harding

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