History suggests you should favour unexposed juveniles over Ascot also-rans

bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) | 7f | 2yo | ITV/RTV

Three of the first four in the betting for this year's Superlative Stakes have already tried and failed in Group or Listed company at Royal Ascot, which would make them unusual winners of this juvenile prize.

In the last ten years, only 2012 winner Olympic Glory had gone to the royal meeting and he finished an excellent second in the Coventry.

The John and Thady Gosden-trained market leader Dhabab managed just sixth in that contest last month, but he ran into a fair bit of trouble so can be marked up for his effort. There's a fair case for saying he sets the form standard by a reasonable margin.

That's because Great Max and Masekela were beaten even further in the Chesham Stakes when they finished third and fifth. It should be noted that the ground was soft and the former had looked a smart prospect when winning on a faster surface on debut.

Eight of the last ten winners had run in nothing more than maiden and novice company, so while there are plenty in here who need to show a lot of improvement, trends tell you that is what happens more often than not.

By far the most likely candidate is Native Trail, whose trainer Charlie Appleby has won three of the last five runnings with once-raced maiden winners.

Native Trail was backed into odds-on favourite against a field largely composed of newcomers at Sandown last month and, after taking a while to get the message, he powered clear to win by four lengths.

The time was nothing special (1.3 seconds slower than the earlier division) but the second and third were the only rivals with previous experience and they had set a steady pace.

Native Trail has an entry in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh, a race Appleby's 2018 winner, the ill-fated Quorto, also won.

Quorto: won this race for Charlie Appleby in 2018Credit: Edward Whitaker

All three of the trainer's previous winners had recorded RPRs between 85 and 88 on their debuts and had plenty to find on the book, so Native Trail's 87 gives him the perfect profile.

Others with National Stakes entries are Dhabab, Appleby's second string Private Signal, and his Doncaster conqueror Austrian Theory.
Race analysis by Paul Kealy

What they say

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Dhabab
He was doing all of his best work at the finish in the Coventry Stakes, in which he met traffic on a couple of occasions and shaped as if this trip would suit. The ground will suit him if it stays quick and we are looking forward to seeing how he gets on.

Emily Scott, racing manager to Amo Racing, owners of Great Max
He was pretty impressive on his debut over six furlongs at Newbury and then had some traffic problems prior to finishing third in the Chesham Stakes on slow ground. We feel that this ground will suit him better and he goes there with a nice chance.

Charlie Appleby, trainer of Native Trail and Private Signal
Native Trail won nicely on his debut at Sandown and has pleased us since, although he’s a well-made sort who may appreciate some ease in the ground. Private Signal is an improving type who could also be in the mix.

Jack Mitchell, rider of Papa Cocktail
He’s always promised to be a decent horse and he’s a big individual with a great mind on him. He was brave to get me through a gap on the rail at Haydock last time and he galloped out well, which should stand him in good stead in this better race.
Reporting by David Milnes

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