'He's been aimed at this race all season' - Lanzarote Hurdle quotes and insight

Saturday: 2.40 Kempton
Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) | 2m5f | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

A good-value conditional can be the difference between victory and defeat in any handicap and the Lanzarote Hurdle has provided the launchpad for many weighing room stars in recent years.

Six of the last nine winners of arguably the jump season's leading intermediate-trip handicap hurdle outside of the major festivals were ridden by conditionals, with Charlie Deutsch, James Bowen and Jonjo O'Neill Jr among those to capitalise on generous 5lb claims.

It is always worth searching for the next prodigy in racing and the data related to 5lb claimer Philip Byrnes, who rides well-fancied Irish raider Green Glory, makes for good reading on first glance.

Byrnes boasts a strong record in Britain with four winners and two seconds at a 50 per cent strike-rate and backing his mounts to £1 stakes would have yielded a £6.58 profit, while the remaining five conditionals with a Lanzarote ride show varying level-stakes losses.

However, we are judging Byrnes on a small sample size in Britain and backing his Irish runners to €1 stakes would have lost you 98.10, while a 16lb hike for Green Glory's Leopardstown victory over Christmas looks harsh enough.

It is difficult to compare the talents of respective young riders but a better-value conditional might be 7lb claimer Freddie Gingell, who Paul Nicholls deploys to partner Red Risk. Gingell is 10-57 at an 18 per cent strike-rate since bursting on to the scene and that rises to 33 per cent (5-15) with Nicholls-trained horses.

Red Risk: one of two Lanzarote runners representing champion trainer Paul NichollsCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Red Risk incurred a 6lb rise for an impressive success on his seasonal return in November and Gingell's presence in the saddle negates that, although there is little guarantee his mount will progress as his record fresh is so strong. Perhaps strong-travelling Newbury runner-up Petit Tonnerre will reverse the form.

This will be a trip down memory lane for O'Neill Jr, who earned the first big-race success of his career in the Lanzarote four years ago, and the best is surely yet to come for his mount Petit Tonnerre after two excellent placings in top handicaps over two and a half miles this campaign.

The ground will be softer at Kempton and that might be the key for a five-year-old who was thrust into Grade 1 company on just his second run for the Jonjo O'Neill yard. He could be the first of that age group to land this since Saphir Du Rheu in 2014.

This is typically the time of year when trainers shelve chasing campaigns with novices who have failed to take to the discipline and last season's winner Cobblers Dream and Camprond return to hurdling.

However, the handicapper probably has their measure and it is unlikely second-season novice Outlaw Peter is anywhere near the assessor's grasp off an opening mark of 130.

It paid to be up with the pace in last year's Lanzarote as the first two home were always front-rank, and this course-and-distance winner is quite possibly the sole prominent racer from the top half a dozen in the betting.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Green goes for Irish glory

Green Glory will bid to give Ireland a rare win in the Lanzarote Hurdle, but trainer Charles Byrnes believes his six-year-old faces a "big ask" as he faces open handicap company for the first time.

Green Glory landed a novice handicap hurdle at Leopardstown's Christmas festival on his latest start and the trainer relies on son Philip to claim 5lb off once again.

Green Glory: a leading fancy for the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton on SaturdayCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

"The better the ground, the better chance he has and that will be the big thing," Byrnes said.

"Two mile five around Kempton should be fine for him, but it is just hard to gauge as it was only a novice handicap he won at Leopardstown, so it's a big ask."

His main rival according to the betting is Outlaw Peter, whose jockey Harry Cobden said: "I'm not saying he's well handicapped, but he's got a fair mark. He's in good form and he could be a horse that might just progress a little bit.

"It's a big field – we'll have to have our wits about us with 20 runners in there."

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What they say

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Pentland Hills and Rathmacknee
We've been chasing with Pentland Hills but we're coming back over hurdles for a run as he took a tumble last time. He's horribly high in the weights, but he's entitled to be as he's a multiple Grade 1 winner. We're claiming off of him and he's in good form. Rathmacknee has been going nicely and has earned a shot at a prize like this, he's in good order.

Charlie Davies, assistant to Paul Nicholls, trainer of Red Risk and Outlaw Peter
Red Risk won really nicely at Newbury. He handles softer ground and goes there with a nice each-way chance. Outlaw Peter has been trained for the Lanzarote since his win at Exeter in early November. We think he's got a nice handicap mark and the track should suit him. He's got a lovely chance.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Quinta Do Mar
He's been aimed at this race all season and is in good form at home.

Alan King, trainer of Harbour Lake
He ran pretty well in the Greatwood at Cheltenham then stepped up to two and a half miles at Aintree and ran another decent race. It's a similar trip on Saturday and I hope that will prove his optimum. The big field means they should go a good gallop and that will help him to settle better this time.

Tom Messenger, assistant trainer to Dan Skelton, trainer of West Balboa
She's come on well for her run at Sandown, which was her first run after a layoff. She's entitled to have improved for that and we feel she's got a good chance.

Gary Moore, trainer of Fifty Ball and Mark Of Gold
It's Fifty Ball's first run of the season after a break and he's as fit as I can get him at home. Mark Of Gold has a reasonable chance and I hope it is soft ground to take the edge off those speedier ones against him.
Reporting by Matt Rennie

Read Saturday's previews:

2.05 Kempton: 'He's got to be the one to beat - the betting has got it right'

2.12 Fairyhouse: 'I think he has a big chance in a competitive race' - quotes for the Dan Moore

2.25 Warwick: course-and-distance winner Ginny's Destiny looks 'the perfect type'

3.00 Warwick: 'We're not sending him over for fresh air' - quotes for the Classic Chase

3.35 Warwick: who brings 'one of the more desirable profiles' to this Pertemps qualifier?

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