Henderson confident Shishkin is ready for return - but has concerns over ground

Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Chase (Grade 2) | 2m | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

That the Celebration Chase and Tingle Creek winner is bigger than 2-1 for a four-runner race on his next start says plenty about the excitement that Shishkin has generated in his novice campaigns.

Would it have been the same if people were not seeing Sprinter Sacre and Altior where Shishkin stands? Possibly not, but Nicky Henderson evidently knows when he has a top-drawer two-mile chasing talent on his hands and also knows how to get the best from them.

Shishkin has never lost for Henderson when he has stood up. There are legitimate reasons to think that today's Desert Orchid Chase might mark a first. He has 6lb on Greaneteen on RPRs (3lb better form plus a 3lb allowance under the race's penalty structure), but never before has he had a rival that close to him in form terms.

Then there is the drama of his absence. Shishkin is making a belated reappearance here, having skipped the Tingle Creek a little more than three weeks ago. Henderson was reportedly 'not quite happy with him' while insisting there was nothing wrong with the horse. It seems fair to infer that Shishkin was not quite at his best three weeks ago. He will need to be at his best now, ahead of his first run in open company.

Greaneteen should be well up to showing his best form. He did not have to dig all that deep in winning the Tingle Creek, and while his big days have been at Sandown he has performed well at sharper tracks plenty of times, so there is no reason to think Kempton will be a problem.

It would be a surprise were either of the other two horses in the race to be seriously involved at the finish. Handicap options for smart two-mile chasers are limited at this time of year, which is partly why Sky Pirate and Before Midnight are running here.

Sky Pirate is just about up to Grade 2 standard, he has run to RPRs of 161, 161 and 160 on each of his last three starts. That is unlikely to be good enough. He has been giving away significant amounts of weight to Before Midnight in their last two meetings, whereas here it is just 4lb.

The one advantage Before Midnight might enjoy is an easy lead. Nothing else tends to go from the front, so Sam Twiston-Davies should get to dictate. Watch out for an early bid for glory, as a good test may give the best chance of a grandstand finish between the big two.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Shishkin set for first chase start out of novice company

Everyone will have their own view on what Shishkin should be able to achieve on his belated first run of the season in the Desert Orchid Chase, but arguably what is key to consider is what trainer Nicky Henderson wants to achieve with him.

Last seen rounding off a perfect first season over fences in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase in April, Shishkin bypassed the Tingle Creek Chase this month having been “off colour”.

So, with the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival the ultimate target, what does Henderson want to see from Shishkin?

“I know what I’d like to happen,” he said. “But we’ve had to step on the gas a little bit to get here, as everyone knows, and I just hope the ground’s not really testing for him. I’m confident he’s fit and he’s ready to run.

“It’s his first run of the season and we just had a bad three weeks when he was off colour, that’s the best way I can put it. Since then things have been pretty good. He worked very nicely on Friday and he schooled on Thursday just like he’s always done – he’s in and over and off so, so fast.”

Henderson believes the ground will have a say in what happens as well, with the underfoot conditions likely to be easier than the trainer would have liked.

“The ground is going to have something to do with it as it’s going to be soft enough — it’s not exactly what I wanted, but there we go,” he said. “As long as we get a solid and sound run from Shishkin then that’s fine for us. They cannot win every time.”

Greaneteen: Tingle Creek winner is the chief threat to ShishkinCredit: Edward Whitaker

Greaneteen made the most of Shishkin’s absence to post a career-best effort in the Tingle Creek, and trainer Paul Nicholls believes his experience will make him a serious challenger to Shishkin.

“He's in very good shape and he loves going right-handed,” Nicholls said. “Shishkin has to run against the big boys and it's an altogether different thing. Ratings-wise he and Greaneteen are about the same.”

The Tingle Creek was a second Grade 1 victory in three outings for Greaneteen, surprising even Nicholls by the rate of his improvement.

“He astonishes me how he keeps improving,” the trainer said. “Who knows whether there's some more to come? I hope there is. He's obviously at the top of his game.”

What they say

Nick Scholfield, rider of Sky Pirate
He's run with credit in his two races this season and he's been in good form building up to this race. He deserves a crack at a race like this having run so well under big weights in handicaps.

Sam Thomas, trainer of Before Midnight
He's exciting. He's rated 148 now so is still 10lb off where he needs to be to compete with the top two-milers. He's got four 1s next to his name and is in serious form.
Reporting by Peter Scargill

Read more Monday previews . . .

1.40 Chepstow: is there another star in this year's Finale? Graeme Rodway analyses the field

2.50 Chepstow: Welsh Grand National – key trainer quotes as Secret Reprieve bids for rare double

2.55 Leopardstown: essential insight and quotes for the Paddy Power Chase

FESTIVE OFFER: Racing Post Members' Club 50% off for three months!

'Tis the season to be jolly, and the perfect time to celebrate with a subscription to Racing Post Members' Club!

Featuring award-winning journalism, expert tips and renowned form study tools, this is the only racing subscription you need to stay ahead of the field.

Throughout the festive season you can get 50% off your first THREE months of Members' Club Ultimate. That's just £17.48 per month* to unlock all premium features.

Head to the offer page here to find out more!

*T&Cs apply