Is there another star in this year's Finale? Graeme Rodway analyses the field

Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) | 3yo | 2m | ITV4/Sky

There are stars on the recent roll of honour for this first juvenile Grade 1 hurdle of the season, so will there be another Bristol De Mai, Defi Du Seuil or Allmankind in this year’s line up?

On what the field has shown so far the answer would have to be a firm no because, judged purely on Racing Post Ratings, this year’s running appears weaker than average for the event.

Nine of the last ten Finale winners came into the contest having recorded an RPR of at least 125 on their previous start and four of them – including Defi Du Seuil and Allmankind – had reached 130. However, this year the highest-rated is Porticello and his best RPR is just 122.

Only 2013 winner Ruacana (120) had achieved a lower standard of form coming into the Finale than this year’s crop and it’s clear a huge amount of improvement will be needed if one of these runners is going to reach star status. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen, though.

This season, the market leaders come into the race unexposed and the reason they don’t boast high RPRs is that they haven’t been given the chance to achieve them. In other words, they have been campaigned in a low-key manner and kept away from the top juvenile contests.

Of those at the top of the market, only Porticello and Magistrato have run in a Graded race over hurdles and both were beaten, while those who have run only once or twice have actually achieved a good level for horses who have had such little experience over hurdles.

Porticello: looking to bounce back after defeat at Doncaster last time outCredit: Edward Whitaker

For example, since the start of 2019, the average highest RPR for all three-year-old hurdlers who had run less than three times in Britain is 86 and the top five percentile had reached 114.

Forever Blessed (highest RPR 118), Porticello (122), Skycutter (120), Magistrato (116) and Saint Segal (117) are therefore all in the top five percentile on that metric and that proves there is quite a bit of strength in depth this year. More so than in most other recent runnings.

That might affect one of the key trends because this has been a good race for favourites, with five of the last ten winners being outright market leaders and seven priced at 5-2 or shorter.

However, this year’s event is evidently more open than most of those runnings and I wouldn’t be rushing to follow the market with so many promising, unexposed hurdlers in the line-up.

A big step forward will be required from at least one of the runners if we are going to see another star, but it’s clear this year there is no shortage of horses with the potential to do so.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

'You couldn't have asked for much more'

Harry Fry may begin and end the year with a Grade 1 success – all thanks to WhatsApp.

He kicked off 2021 by landing the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown with Metier and could see it out by taking this top-level contest with a juvenile he first saw via the online messaging service.

Forever Blessed, a breeze-up buy who proved too big to race on the Flat, was cross-country schooling in that video.

But while chasing clearly beckons for him in the future, he has made a good fist of his fledgling career over hurdles and is unbeaten in two starts, which he has won by an aggregate of 29 lengths.

Forever Blessed was particularly impressive in scoring by 18 lengths at Sandown last time and Fry said: "You couldn't have asked for much more from his two runs.

"It's a big step up in grade, taking on much better horses but we know he'll handle conditions. It was very soft at Ffos Las first time and we're really looking forward to seeing how he gets on in Grade 1 company."

What they say

Alan King, trainer of Forever William
Though he was a bit lazy on the Flat, he's taken to hurdles from day one and put up a really pleasing performance when winning first time out at Newbury. He jumps very well and he wouldn't mind soft ground, which is a key consideration for Chepstow on Welsh Grand National day.

Gary Moore, trainer of Porticello
It depends how much better off he is on soft ground. He won well on very soft ground in France and I hope the reason he got beaten at Doncaster was because it was just good ground. I have respect for Magistrato and Forever Blessed, but I hope he can give a good account of himself.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Magistrato
It's a tough-looking race. I'm sure he will be more effective on this ground than he has been on the quicker surface he's run on twice so far this season.

Olly Murphy, trainer of Tease And Seize
He's won two ordinary juveniles very well. It's a big step up in class but he'll handle conditions. He'll be dropped in and ridden to run well. It would be great to think he'd have an outside each-way chance. We'll learn whether he's a Triumph Hurdle horse or whether he's a horse for the Fred Winter.

Phil Kirby, trainer of Skycutter
He's done nothing wrong, he's got solid form and he goes there with a massive chance, I hope. He'll handle the ground, we've just got to get him settled.
Reporting by David Carr

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