'He won like a piece of work' - can Ice Max follow up his Bath win or is there a big improver lining up?

Three-year-old handicaps are tricky at the best of times and in the spring they can be an utter minefield.

Predicting which horses, returning from six months or more off, are going to improve markedly as they start their second season – and which ones are not – isn't much more than educated guesswork.

So tread very carefully here as eight of these nine runners make their reappearance, racing for the first time after between 159 and 232 days off. Who knows how much they may have come on?

The one exception is the Karl Burke-trained Ice Max, who showed exactly how far a three-year-old can improve when bolting in by four lengths on heavy ground at Bath a fortnight ago, on his first run since being gelded.

He is 8lb higher in the handicap now and faces very different underfoot conditions in a much more competitive race.

Among numerous dangers, Cerulean Bay and Venture Capital were useful juveniles who received favourable mentions in their trainers' Racing Post stable tours this week, and Individualism is a half-brother to Subjectivist and Sir Ron Priestley, so looks certain to step forward considerably this year.

But do not underestimate Silent Move, a 200,000gns yearling who showed promise in each of his three runs for Richard Fahey last season.

He has been gelded since then, promises to improve considerably this year and could be one – of many – who is some way ahead of the handicapper.
Race analysis by David Carr

What they say

Clifford Lee, rider of Ice Max
He won easily the other day at Bath where it was like a piece of work for him. We have always liked him, but we’ve worked out that he doesn’t like straight tracks, hence were running him around Musselburgh.

David O’Meara, trainer of Cerulean Bay
He won his first two starts last year but didn’t give his true running in the Solario Stakes at Sandown. He’s not the biggest but I expect him to progress this season.

Brian Ellison, trainer of Power Of Zeus
He’s not the sort of horse who shows much at home, so we’re getting a run into him to see where we are going forward.

Philip Robinson, racing manager to Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum, owner of Silent Move
He won well at Thirsk last year and then the penalty may well have got the better of him at Carlisle next time, when they also went off too fast. He’s been gelded since then and has wintered well.

Steve Brown, assistant to Julie Camacho, trainer of Arantes Nascimento
He has an interesting profile as he won as a two-year-old old, but we’ve always seen him more as a three-year-old prospect. He’s up in grade but we’re very happy with him going into the race.
Reporting by David Milnes

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