'He loves Ascot and this is his type of race' - who fancies their chances in the International Stakes?

The prospect of ground on the easy side of good puts a different slant on where might be the ideal place to be drawn in this typically competitive handicap on the Ascot straight course.

One of my favourite theories about Ascot in the rain is that the huge grandstand acts as an umbrella for the stands' side of the track, shielding it from the worst of the weather and therefore producing quicker conditions for those drawn high.

I'm obviously writing with tongue-in-cheek regarding the effect of the grandstand but, whatever the reason, there is clear evidence that high numbers are preferred following rain.

I looked at all races over the seven-furlong straight track at Ascot that were run on ground described as softer than good by Raceform since the start of 2013 and the rolling three-stall average of percentage rivals beaten (%RB) improves significantly from stall 22 and upwards.

That is particularly interesting with regards to this race because two of the market leaders are drawn in single-figure stalls, including impressive wide-margin Bunbury Cup scorer Biggles.

He carries just a 3lb penalty for that success and is 2lb well in as a result, but comes from stall six and that is also a little more towards the middle than ideal. The three-stall rolling average not only tells us that high is favoured but also that the middle is the worst place to be.

If you are going to be drawn low, then as low as possible is preferable and last year's winner, Fresh, is in stall four. He won from 12 last season, but that was on good to firm and it will be interesting to see if he can defy a mark 3lb higher than last year from the far side of the track.

If the statistics are right and stalls 22 or higher are favoured, Baradar is ideally placed in 24 and he will relish the ease in the ground. He beat Biggles on heavy going at Doncaster last November, was third in the Lincoln on heavy and sixth in the Victoria Cup on soft ground.

The other horse to note in high numbers is Ropey Guest (stall 27). He was second to Biggles in the Bunbury Cup, but two of his three highest Racing Post Ratings have been achieved over course and distance on soft ground and, if ever a horse deserved an Ascot win, it's him.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

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Ascot regular Ropey Guest in 'really good form'

Ground conditions will not bother Ropey Guest when he bids to turn the tables on his two-length Bunbury Cup conqueror Biggles on 3lb better terms.

A regular in fiercely contested Ascot handicaps over the straight course, the six-year-old has run some cracking races in defeat, including when second to Inver Park in last year’s Buckingham Palace Stakes.

George Margarson: reports Ropey Guest in excellent formCredit: Edward Whitaker

Trainer George Margarson believes he could not have Ropey Guest in better condition as he bids to finally break down the door this time.

"He's in really good form and he came out of his Newmarket race particularly well," Margarson said. "The ground won't be an issue either way.

"He has good form on soft, and won't mind if it dries out a bit. Whether he's drawn on the right side in stall 27 I'm not sure, but there seems to be a lot of pace horses down the middle or on the far side.

"Hopefully they won't split into four groups like they did in this year's Buckingham Palace. He's best covered up in a big field and things didn't work out for him that day. Let's hope he can finally win one of these big Ascot races. He deserves to."

What they say

David O'Meara, trainer of Escobar, Orbaan and Bopedro
Escobar loves Ascot and this is his type of race. I'm hopeful he'll get some prize-money. Orbaan seems more effective on better ground nowadays, while Bopedro was a tad unlucky at Newmarket and should be capable of a big run off this mark.

Richard Hannon, trainer of Tacarib Bay
He'll love the ground and we've had him gelded since his last run. A stiff seven furlongs is what he wants and he comes here a fresh horse. I fancy him to go well.

James Horton, trainer of Rhythm Master
The ground was too quick for him last time. He needs to get his toe in. We were down there and we took a chance because he hadn't run on faster ground for a long time but he didn't enjoy it at all. He's in good form and will enjoy these conditions.

Kevin Philippart de Foy, trainer of Vafortino
He showed he was still in good form with his narrow defeat at York. He is off a career-high mark and there is no margin for error, so we're claiming 5lb with Kaiya Fraser's allowance. Vafortino ran well in the Victoria Cup at Ascot in May and the slower ground should suit him. He'll need lots of luck, but we're very happy with him.

James Fanshawe, trainer of Fresh and Hickory
Fresh is drawn in stall four and Hickory goes from stall 26, so we've got one on either side. Fresh's record on the track speaks for itself and he's in good form going into the race.

Roger Varian, trainer of Lir Speciale
He's in great form and should outrun his odds.
Reporting by Richard Birch

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