Grand Sefton: betting insight and trainer quotes for Aintree's closing handicap

William Hill Grand Sefton Handicap Chase | 2m5f | 6yo+ | ITV4/RTV

While it is generally the case that being prominent is a benefit over the National fences, last year's Grand Sefton resulted in a bit of a pace collapse. That is significant in two ways this year, the first being to point out that there are plenty in the 2020 running with a history of forcing the pace.

Lord Du Mesnil, Might Bite, Crievehill, Dingo Dollar, Federici and Sir Jack Yeats are not just prominent racers, they all lead when the chance presents itself. Admittedly, quite a few are three-milers and so are unlikely to tear off, but the possibility for a burn-up in successive renewals remains.

The second consideration is the effect it has on reading the 2019 Sefton. Five of the runners are back in 2020, with Beau Bay having finished best of them last year. However, he was held up and picked off a few as they tired. Significantly more interesting are Flying Angel and Didero Vallis, who both sat up with the pace.

Although his talent is not doubted, personally I have given up trying to guess when Flying Angel's going days are going to be, so he is put to one side. Didero Vallis jumped two out almost upsides before fading into fifth. He has run only twice since, finishing second in the Rowland Meyrick and making a solid reappearance at Ascot a fortnight ago. In spite of that, he returns off a slightly lower mark than last year.

There are arguably more in the way of interesting sorts than the average Grand Sefton. Sametegal was third in this race three years ago and has been holding his form in good races around three miles, while underlining nearly every time that a test at this sort of trip is his ideal.

Senior Citizen looks well handicapped if he takes to the fencesCredit: Edward Whitaker

On the progressive side you have arguably the nine-year-old Pink Eyed Pedro, whose price includes some incredulity at his close-up finish in the Haldon Gold Cup that would not exist if he were younger or with a big-name trainer. You definitely have Senior Citizen, who has plenty of good novice form but has not suffered for it in his handicap mark. A solid jumper and smooth traveller, he is as well handicapped as any if taking to the course.
Analysis by Keith Melrose

Saturday tips from our experts:

Tom Segal with his best bets for the high-quality cards at Aintree and Sandown (Members' Club subscribers)

'He has a superb record here' – Graeme Rodway with a strong fancy at Sandown (Members' Club subscribers)

The Punt Daily: Tom Collins' free horse racing tips on Saturday afternoon

Saturday's free racing tips: insight from Racing Post's team of experts

What they say

Richard Hobson, trainer of Lord Du Mesnil
He seems in really good order and I'm looking forward to it. He schooled very well over the Lambourn National fences, so I hope he'll take to it well.

Lord Du Mesnil: 'In really good order'Credit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Modus and Sametegal
Modus has won at Aintree over the Mildmay fences. I'm sure he’ll jump the National fences well. He's gone up 9lb but isn't without a chance. Sametegal has been around the course before. This trip on soft ground is perfect for him. He's a contender.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Crievehill and Flying Angel
They've both jumped round there before and I'm looking forward to it. Crievehill didn't run badly in the Old Roan. Flying Angel didn't run a great race at Ascot but he's in really good form now.

Alex Hales, trainer of Huntsman Son
I'm delighted with him. He's in very good form and he's the ideal horse for this but I'm worried the ground could be too soft for him. If it got heavy he could be a doubtful runner.

Alan King, trainer of Dingo Dollar and Senior Citizen
I've long thought that the Grand National fences could spark Dingo Dollar's enthusiasm. He's had a wind operation since a disappointing first run back over hurdles at Uttoxeter and is working well. Senior Citizen is less seasoned over fences and was still a novice until the start of this week. However, he has a fair amount of experience and has run very well in both starts this season.

Venetia Williams, trainer of Didero Vallis
He ran well in the race last year. Soft ground would be helpful.
Reporting by David Carr

Saturday's previews:

Altior absence leaves Tingle Creek at the mercy of Paul Nicholls-trained pair

Will the Grand National fences reignite the spark in mercurial Might Bite? (Members' Club subscribers)

Becher Chase: Minellacelebration fancied to tee up owner's Grand National dream

Class counts: how the Becher Chase is copying its older cousin (Members' Club subscribers)

'A proper race' – buckle up for a fast and furious Henry VIII Novices' Chase

'I know the Tizzards are very happy with him' – Native River returns in hot race

Can 'devastating' Cloudy Glen be tamed in his bid for another National of sorts?

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