Frodon or Top Notch? Expert tipster analysis for the Silviniaco Conti Chase

2.05 Kempton
Unibet Silviniaco Conti Chase | Grade 2 | 2m4½f, 5yo+ | ITV4/RTV

Tipster analysis

In one sense, the Silviniaco Conti Chase is a simple race to analyse. You need only worry about two horses, Top Notch and Frodon, as both would need to run below form to allow the rest in.

Top Notch, at least, acts as a stop-loss. Outside of Grade 1 company, which with the best will in the world is a bit beyond him, he hardly ever runs a bad race (form figures in Britain: 11125131113111111). The problem is that the usually reliable Frodon, winner of last season's Ryanair Chase, has not been at his best so far this season, having been beaten 15 lengths in the Old Roan and 27 lengths in the Betfair Chase.

Top Notch will more than likely run to something in the low to mid-160s. He ran to 165 when winning this race last year. What chance Frodon can top that?

On this season's form, you might offer odds against. He does, however, have five 170+ performances to his name on Racing Post Ratings, four of them recorded in the last 14 months.

Furthermore, trainer Paul Nicholls revealed earlier in the week that the horse had been treated for stomach ulcers since Haydock. Being able to put a potential cause to his two runs this year complicates matters.

The question posed is this: what price Frodon runs to within half a stone of his best? If you come up with something shorter than his current odds to win, then he is worth a bet.

Keith Melrose, betting editor

'He warrants a chance at this race'

A race named after one of Paul Nicholls' former stars does feature a runner from Ditcheat, but those giving the racecard only a cursory glance may think there is two, given one of the horses has the Kauto prefix.

But Kauto Riko hails from the stable of Tom Gretton, and will be bidding to once again outrun his odds. From humble beginnings over fences with a win off a mark of 115 at Newcastle in December 2017, Kauto Riko has risen through the ranks and is now rated 149.

That mark does still leave the son of Ballingarry with something to find in this Grade 2 event, but he dramatically outperformed his mark of 143 last month in the Fitzdares Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon.

An unfancied 100-1 shot, Kauto Riko only found Top Notch – who reopposes – three parts of a length too good and given that was his first start since last season's Cheltenham Festival the hope is there is more improvement to come.

David Noonan: rides Kauto RikoCredit: Getty Images

Gretton is optimistic of another good run and said: "It's exciting for the yard and the owners. This is a reward for their patience as he has run here there and everywhere and they're mainly London-based so there will be a good turnout for him.

"I've got the utmost respect for all the runners but he warrants a chance at this race judged on his last run. We were deciding between this and a handicap at Ascot next week but when Altior came out we thought we'd give it a go.

"Everything has gone well with him since Huntingdon and this track should suit a little better. If he jumps and travels as well as he did last time he'd have a squeak."

Jacob excited to be reunited with Top Notch

While much of the build-up to this race has centred around Altior's non-participation, Nicky Henderson is still likely to be in the winner's enclosure according to the betting.

Last year's winner Top Notch is back again, as is jockey Daryl Jacob, who has successfully recovered from a broken hand sustained at Musselburgh last month.

Jacob appears to have quickly knocked off the ring-rust, making a winning return aboard Dragon D'Estruval at Ludlow on Wednesday, and Top Notch is odds-on to score again.

Top Notch strides clear to win a second Peterborough Chase under Daryl JacobCredit: Steve Davies

Top Notch holds a special place in Jacob's heart, the pair having combined for ten wins from 21 runs and the jockey can't wait for another spin on the tenacious nine-year-old.

"He was a real incentive to get back for," Jacob said on Friday. "Oaksey House has been very good to me and I did a lot of fitness work before and after Christmas.

"Top Notch is in really good form and worked very nicely the other day. He was very good last time out and won this race last year. I'm looking forward to the second half of the season and he's an exciting horse to look forward to."

Frost and Frodon ready to rumble

Another dynamic duo will be in action with Bryony Frost and Frodon teaming up. The pairing provided some magnificent moments last season, capped off with a memorable victory in the Ryanair Chase.

While the eight-year-old is yet to hit those heights this term, he drops in trip and class for this assignment.

Frodon: Ryanair Chase hero takes a drop in trip and gradeCredit: Patrick McCann

Harry Derham, assistant to Nicholls, said: "He worked really well on Thursday and schooled very well on Monday and we're very happy with him.

"Altior not being there helps and we'll go back to what worked last year; two and half miles and being good and aggressive."

What they say

Tom Messenger, assistant to Dan Skelton, trainer of Born Survivor
He's always done well for us, particularly in the spring. At the ratings he might struggle a bit but we'd be happy if he can place.

Warren Greatrex, trainer of Keeper Hill
He's in between a rock and a hard place. I don't think it suits him running in handicaps and he wants a bit better ground. On ratings he has a chance of being placed but the trip is a bit short. He's in good form and you never know what might happen.

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