Easyview: who comes out on top of the 2023 Scottish Grand National runners?

This page contains everything you need to make an informed choice on the Scottish Grand National, with nothing hidden behind arcane stats and well-worn jargon. 

Racing Post Easyview takes all the factors a skilled punter would consider and expresses them in as straightforward a format as possible, with six key attributes rated out of 100 and an overall score calculated from a weighted average. 

Last week our engine coped better with the unique demands of the Grand National than its top-rated selection, Delta Work. That horse's slap-dash round of jumping, when he had negotiated the course so expertly 12 months earlier, is one of those imponderables that few models- or indeed punters- could anticipate. Yet two of Easyview's top four (Noble Yeats, Gaillard Du Mesnil) got into the top four in the race itself, while winner Corach Rambler had been fifth on our list.

The Easyview engine already runs in the background on all British and Irish races. The Scottish Grand National is a much more typical event than its Aintree equivalent, with runners jumping regulation birch fences over a chase course that is used hundreds of times a year, rather than a handful. As such, this race has been able to show off the engine's sophistication even better than the Grand National. Read below for some of the highlights.

Easyview has been designed from day one with the reader in mind, so we would love to hear your feedback as we fine-tune our most modern version of a racecard. Click on this link to tell us what you think of it.

The Easyview racecard

Coral Scottish Grand National (3.35 Ayr, Saturday)

Elvis Mail
Course rating: 100

A glance at Elvis Mail's record could tell you that he saves his best for Ayr and Kelso: all seven of his wins and most of his best runs have come at those two tracks. However, when looking at this race Easyview's engine knows to lean more heavily on his chasing career. As such, Ayr emerges as this horse's best track by a narrow but undeniable margin.

He has won two of his three chase runs here. His sole defeat at Ayr came at this meeting last year, when he was utterly luckless in a Listed handicap but still finished a fairly close-up fourth. Purely in terms of course form, he deserves to be ahead of horses like Mighty Thunder and Kitty's Light, for all their records in this specific race.

Elvis Mail15:35 Ayr

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Jky: Bruce Lynn (3lb)Tnr: N W Alexander

Malina Girl
Jumping rating: 90

The point has been made elsewhere that Malina Girl is only a novice chaser in the strictest sense. In the last 12 months she has run 14 times over fences, which might arguably have dropped enough clues for the handicapper but on the other hand offers lots of evidence about her jumping ability. On jumping she comes out as well as any of her rivals on Easyview's measure.

As mentioned last week, the engine looks at the in-running comments on horses to pick out positive and negative terms on their jumping and uses this to craft each horse's score. Malina Girl jumps really well, something her trainer often comments on (note this is not factored into the model), and so this 'novice' should have no problems jumping among more experienced types.

Malina Girl15:35 Ayr

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Jky: Sean Flanagan Tnr: Gavin Cromwell

Flash Collonges
Jockey rating: 100

It is incredible to think that Harry Cobden and Paul Nicholls are already closing in on 500 winners together. Unsurprisingly, both men score 100 in their categories for this race, yet Cobden is further clear than Nicholls and that hints at some of the calculations that go into the scores.

The record a jockey has with the horse's trainer plays a significant part in the jockey score. So when Cobden rides for Nicholls, he scores at his very highest because of the statistical significance of their long-term record as a team. 

Most expert witnesses would agree that there is no better active jockey riding over jumps in Britain than Harry Cobden. The Easyview engine has no eyes, but brings in the right data to come to the same conclusion.

Flash Collonges15:35 Ayr

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Jky: Harry Cobden Tnr: Paul Nicholls

Your Own Story
Distance rating: 100

Easyview is not just based on stats. It also scans a horse's profile and in-running comments to build up a picture, particularly when it comes to the jumping and distance attributes. 

This has helped to pick out the young chasers in the field with the most promise for this marathon trip, by looking for phrases like 'kept on' and 'rallied' in their running notes. In some ways Manofthepeople, who scores 93, is a harder spot as he has never run beyond 3m2f- although he is clearly a strong stayer. Top scorer Your Own Story has already won over 3m7f, but it is the boost provided by his running style the last twice (both include the term 'stayed on') that pushes him to the top of the tree when it comes to distance.

Your Own Story15:35 Ayr

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Jky: Derek Fox Tnr: Lucinda Russell

Easyview 1-2-3-4 verdict

1. Flash Collonges
2. Mighty Thunder
3. Undersupervision
4. Kitty's Light

Flash Collonges excels on the jockey and trainer attributes, but he is strong on all six: distance is his weakest, even though his dam is a half-sister to Grand National winner Neptune Collonges. Mighty Thunder and Kitty's Light both have history in this race, while Undersupervision - a strong stayer with loads of form at similar tracks under similar conditions - is an interesting wildcard for the engine to throw into the mix.

Flash Collonges15:35 Ayr

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Jky: Harry Cobden Tnr: Paul Nicholls

Read these next:

2023 Scottish Grand National pinstickers' guide: trainer quotes and star ratings for every horse 

2023 Scottish Grand National: the runners, the odds, the verdict  

2023 Scottish Grand National tips: why this horse can win the big race at Ayr on Saturday  

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