Can highly regarded Arrivederci repay punters' faith with first big-race win?

1.50 Ascot
Matchbook Better Way To Bet Holloway's Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) | 2m3½f | 4yo+ | ITV4/Sky

There aren’t many better resources than the Racing Post’s stable tours and anyone who has followed the series over the last couple of years will know the high regard in which Arrivederci is held by trainer Jonjo O’Neill, who has nominated the six-year-old as one for the tracker in both of the last two seasons.

So can he repay the faith with this big-race win?

The problem for punters is his reputation precedes him and that means he is rarely missed in the market. Arrivederci has been favourite or joint-favourite in all three of his starts in handicap hurdles and lurks at the head of the market again despite a poor run last time.

His trainer could offer no explanation for that performance, which came in the Betfair Exchange Trophy over course and distance last month when rider Jonjo O’Neill reported Arrivederci was flat out throughout.

He sported a first-time tongue-strap and the fact the aid is retained suggests connections don’t think that played a part, so it’s a bit of a mystery.

It appears they are pinning their hopes on a return to a four-furlong longer trip providing the answer and that is in line with his pedigree. Arrivederci’s dam was a French 3m2f winner and she is a half-sister to Rendlesham winner Crystal D'Ainay, so there is stamina there.

The best piece of last-time-out hurdles form judged on Racing Post Ratings at these weights was from Paddy’s Motorbike, who is on a hat-trick after wins at Uttoxeter and Huntingdon.

The nine-year-old has been a bit of a nomad having spent time with David Evans, Paul Morgan, Christian Williams, Nigel Twiston-Davies and now Sam Thomas, but his three runs for Thomas have yielded three of his five highest RPRs and he is back on the upgrade again.

His last two runs have been career bests and he has always been a horse who promised a lot but delivered little. Maybe now he is starting to fulfil his potential for a trainer who is on the up himself.

Thomas has a 25 per cent strike-rate this season with 14 winners from 56 runners and a further 19 of those were placed. That is the yard’s best campaign yet by some way.

The final word must go to Olly Murphy, who won this race last year with Thomas Darby and saddles another smart prospect in I K Brunel, who should appreciate the drop from three miles.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

'He has outstanding each-way chance'

Evan Williams is rarely wide of the mark when he trumpets the chance of one of his runners for a big handicap.

The trainer was conspicuously upbeat about Coole Cody ahead of his victory in Cheltenham’s ultra-competitive Paddy Power Gold Cup in November.

Evan Williams: says Dans Le Vent has “an outstanding each-way chance”Credit: Edward Whitaker

Since then, Williams has enjoyed further big-race success with Star Gate in a Grade 2 novices’ hurdle, Silver Streak in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and Secret Reprieve in the Welsh National.

He has high hopes the good run will continue with Dans Le Vent, who he describes as holding “an outstanding each-way chance”.

This looks a typically competitive Ascot handicap, but Williams, who won the race in 2011 with 40-1 Tiger O’Toole, will be disappointed if his eight-year-old isn’t firmly in the shake-up.

“He’s a beauty, a very nice little horse,” Williams said. “I was surprised at how well he ran on his reappearance at Hereford last month.

“I think this race could well suit him. I just fancy him. He ran in the Cheltenham Bumper when he was younger, and should be able to win again off his current mark.

“He goes to Ascot with an outstanding each-way chance. He’s very interesting.”

Those who listened to Williams ahead of the Paddy Power and were rewarded with a 10-1 winner could well be planning to play up those winnings when they read this.

What they say

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Janika and Craigneiche
Janika is in good form and schooled well on Friday. It's his first run back after a wind op, so we've decided to give him a spin over hurdles. He's 13lb lower over hurdles than fences, so has a good chance. Craigneiche is having only his third run over hurdles. It's a step up in class for him, but if he handles the ground he should run well.

Harry Fry, trainer of Lightly Squeeze
He ran a really good race over two miles there before Christmas and we're looking forward to stepping him up in trip. We hope that can bring about a bit more improvement.

Joe Tizzard, assistant to Colin Tizzard, trainer of War Lord
We know he handles the conditions and the track should be fine for him. He's won a race this season and the handicapper has reacted accordingly, but he's got a chance in a competitive race.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Danny Kirwan
He likes Ascot. Three miles was too far for him at Cheltenham last time. This looks much more suitable for him.
Reporting by Richard Birch

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