Adayar the hot favourite and hoping to spring to King George - but could tactics hinder him?

Take a look back through the last ten runnings of this race and there is one thing that stands out like a sore thumb. Front-runners have been punching well above their weight and six of the last ten winners either led early or made all, including all five in the period from 2013-17.

The fact there wasn’t a double-figure field in that period meant the race usually became tactical and even the stayer Big Orange managed to win twice in succession at odds of 25-1 and 8-1 from 2015-16. That tells you everything about how the event often pans out.

Only four have been declared again, despite Group 2 status and prize-money of more than £70,000 to the winner, and that points to another tactical race in which the leader might not be caught.

That could be a problem for the two market principals as Derby winner Adayar has the race comments 'dwelt start' and 'slowly into stride' appearing in two of his last three races and Israr 'raced in last' early on at York last time before finishing second behind Quickthorn.

Adayar, in particular, is a fascinating case as William Buick rode a similarly high-profile runner from the Charlie Appleby yard in the Fred Archer over course and distance recently in New London and was beaten by front-running stable second string Kemari under James Doyle. 

Doyle rides another Appleby second string in Global Storm here and he is a front-runner. The six-year-old beat Kemari when making most of the running to land the City Of Gold at Meydan in March and pushed the pace when second on the Rowley Mile last time.

He could definitely steal it from the front if allowed his own way, especially as the fourth member of the field is the talented but quirky Grand Alliance, who may yet be an absentee. He is another slow starter who needs to be smuggled into every race and Ryan Moore will have to be on his very best form.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Charlie Appleby, trainer of Adayar and Global Storm
Adayar has come out of Royal Ascot well and the plan is that this will hopefully be a springboard onto the King George. He's in great order and we're looking forward to getting him back over a mile and a half, a trip that has produced his two biggest victories. Global Storm is a solid campaigner and his run behind Hurricane Lane looks strong, with the third West Wind Blows subsequently boosting the form. He is lining up on his own merits and ran well in this race last year.

Charlie Fellowes, trainer of Grand Alliance
I would say he's unlikely to run unless it rains and the chance of thunderstorms on which we declared him seem unlikely to materialise now. We tried him on fast ground in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and he hated it. It may well be that we keep him for a backend campaign.

Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Israr
He didn’t quite get the trip over a mile and six at York last time and should be more effective back at a mile and a half. He’s been in very good form at home since then and has a chance in a small and very select field.
Reporting by David Milnes

Read our Thursday previews:

'He’s a hugely progressive horse' - who will stake St Leger claim in Bahrain Trophy? 

'He’s got a lot of speed and has a good racing brain' - key quotes and analysis for wide-open July Stakes 

'I’ve kept him fresh for this race' - which trainer has targeted this big Newmarket sprint? 

'It’s no easy number' - highly regarded Nostrum connections wary of tough rivals as he makes comeback 

'This is her trip and she's a classy filly when she puts it all together' - which outsider is a trainer very sweet on? 

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