'A real slog' will suit Hill Sixteen in competitive Tommy Whittle Chase

2.40 Haydock
Betfair Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase | 3m1½f | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

Any punter who always regards one element of judging a race ahead of all others is going to miss winners at some point. Speaking personally, ground conditions rarely get to the top of the priorities list, but on occasions like Haydock's Saturday card it might get close.

On Friday, the GoingStick reading was already hovering around 4.0, with rain forecast to continue into Saturday. Few places get as testing as Haydock, so the Tommy Whittle could well develop into an elimination race.

It might be argued that the early market has taken evasive action. Both Hill Sixteen and Sojourn are on the up, but have also demonstrated capability in deep mud already this winter. Hill Sixteen was a 46-length winner at Ffos Las in November, while Sojourn cruised to success at Carlisle.

In the latter's case, that was the second time in three chase starts that he has proved the only one able to truly handle borderline unraceable conditions. After Carlisle he might have been thought a Welsh National, Classic Chase or Eider type. Targeting this slightly weaker but still prestigious handicap could turn out to be an inspired bit of race planning.

While the Tommy Whittle tends to be classified with long-distance plods, the make-up of this field is surprisingly fresh. Of the ten declarations, no runner is older than eight, three of them are novices and all the rest were still eligible for novice races at some point last season.

Enqarde is strictly the most exposed in the field over fences with ten chase runs behind them, but they were all in France. Two promising runs over hurdles in Britain before returning to fences for a decent prize gives off the impression of a plan reaching its denouement and he certainly seems well enough handicapped to compete. He will need to jump better than when third at Auteuil last September.

Saturday tips from our experts:

Pricewise: Tom Segal with an Ascot tip 'more than capable of winning off his revised mark' (Members' Club subscribers)

Paul Kealy with six value Saturday bets following two winners last weekend (Members' Club subscribers)

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Saturday's free racing tips: expert selections from our top team

A consequence of the unexposed profiles of the runners is that cases can be made quite a long way down the betting. Even Sam's Adventure, an outsider on the early shows, has form that would make him a major player.

He won a strong novice handicap on Midlands National day and is only 4lb higher now. You can throw out his two runs this year, he did not seem ready when pulled up behind Sojourn at Carlisle and was basically wiped out over course and distance last month.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What they say

Venetia Williams, trainer of Roll Again
I'm not sure how much the heavy ground will suit him. He's run well round Ludlow, including when winning there last time. He's still a young horse, so hopefully he can take the step up in class.

Anthony Honeyball, trainer of Sojourn
He's been a bit fragile and hasn't taken much racing, but he seems fine and we hope we've got him in decent order. He had a hard race at Carlisle and has been given plenty of time since. It's the perfect race for him and conditions will be ideal.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Hill Sixteen
He had two hard races quite close together and has had three weeks to recover. It will be a real slog but he doesn't seem to mind the soft, as he showed when winning at Ffos Las on his first start for us.

Gillian Boanas, trainer of Crixus's Escape
He's a lovely horse, who has progressed with every run. We've taken our time with him and hopefully we'll reap the rewards with him now. He won well at Ayr last time and there should be improvement from that. The track should suit and he'll love the heavy ground, which is key to him.

Richard Newland, trainer of Enqarde
I'm looking forward to running him. It's whether he'll quite get the trip on the ground as it's going to be pretty attritional. He shapes like a stayer and is in very good form.

David Bridgwater, trainer of Salty Boy
He would have an each-way chance. I was hoping he would have stayed on better than he did when he ran at Ascot last time, but we're still learning about him and hopefully he will finish off better this time.
Reporting by Andrew Dietz

All of Saturday's previews and analysis:

Heavyweights battle for staying supremacy in star-studded Long Walk Hurdle (Members' Club subscribers)

Why Long Walk is a far more complex puzzle than Newbury clash would make it seem (Members' Club subscribers)

'He's got an outstanding chance' – the Saturday Jury on the big-race action (Members' Club subscribers)

'It's not just a rematch' – Johnson and Lavelle wary of Long Walk Hurdle dangers

Caribean Boy and Itchy Feet go head-to-head in graduation chase cracker

Stats suggest quick return for well-regarded Saint Sonnet could be profitable

Venetia Williams' stable staff are off to the races – but as owners

'He's favourite and he deserves to be' – Bridgwater has faith in The Conditional

'Backers of hype horse Buzz are advised to watch his in-running price'

One horse, one jockey, one trainer and one race to watch on Saturday

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