Stats suggest quick return for well-regarded Saint Sonnet could be profitable

'For The Love Of Racing' Handicap Chase | 2m3f | 4yo+ | ITV4/Sky

Paul Nicholls has made no secret of the high regard in which he holds Saint Sonnet, but not a lot has gone right for the five-year-old in two outings at Cheltenham this campaign.

Saint Sonnet fell at the last when beaten in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on his seasonal reappearance last month before being badly hampered by a faller at the fifth fence in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup a week ago. He never recovered and was pulled up at the 11th by Aidan Coleman.

Nicholls brings Saint Sonnet back just a week later in a bid to recoup losses and has a 27 per cent strike-rate with runners returning within a week of their last run since the start of 2008.

Venetia Williams-trained runners and heavy ground go together like peas and carrots and if you’d backed all her representatives on such conditions in the month of December since the start of 2008 you would have had 31 winners from 128 bets (24 per cent), for a £1 level-stake profit of £34.13.

She saddles likely outsider Gardefort, who returns from 558 days off the track but is a three-time winner on heavy going. Williams has had five runners return from at least a year off the track on heavy ground in the month of December in the same 12-year period and one of those won at odds of 14-1.

The final word must go to the talented but often maligned Mengli Khan, who appears to have turned over a new leaf having been successful on two of his last four runs for Gordon Elliott.

He makes his debut for Nicky Henderson, who has a 41 per cent (34-83) with horses who have switched trainers since their last run in the last five years.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Mengli Khan
He’s very interesting. This will be his first run for us. He’s fabulous and shows tremendous enthusiasm. I have spoken to Davy [Russell] and Gordon [Elliott] and have decided to leave all the headgear off. He’s starting here with a clean sheet. He’s entertaining, to say the least.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Bennys King
He stays a bit further than this but with the ground as it is, that could be in his favour. He's in good form, will handle the ground and I'm happy with him.

Saturday tips from our experts:

Pricewise: Tom Segal with an Ascot tip 'more than capable of winning off his revised mark' (Members' Club subscribers)

Paul Kealy with six value Saturday bets following two winners last weekend (Members' Club subscribers)

Big-race Trends: Long Distance Hurdle the best pointer to success in Long Walk (Members' Club subscribers)

The Punt Daily: Tom Collins' free horse racing tips on Saturday afternoon

Paul Kealy's must-have banker at Haydock on Saturday

Saturday's free racing tips: expert selections from our top team

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Saint Sonnet
He has a few mishaps to put behind him but Aidan Coleman pulled him up at Cheltenham last week when he was badly hampered early on by a faller. He's taken little out of himself, which is why were going again with him so soon, and he could well be competitive.

Richard Newland, trainer of Theo
He was very much trained for the veterans' race he won last time. He's come out of it really well, but going into an all-age race is a step up and the ground will be different. I hope he runs well but I wouldn't be any more confident than that.

Theo (Charlie Hammond) clears the last ahead of Garde La Victoire on his way to winning the veterans' chaseCredit: Mike Egerton (Getty Images/Pool)

Gary Moore, trainer of Not Another Muddle and Early Du Lemo
They are both in there with chances. Early Du Lemo ran well on his reappearance at Sandown and has a nice low weight. Not Another Muddle has plenty of good winning form on soft ground.

Tom Symonds, trainer of Saint De Vassy
Obviously it's a step up in class but I thought it was a strong race that he won at Exeter last time and he should be fine on the ground. He goes there off a nice racing weight.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Kapgarry
It's quite a hot race but we're giving it a go. He makes his return, having won twice over fences last season. He's ready to go, but the ground might be a bit soft for him.

David Bridgwater, trainer of Enrichissant
He's only got ten stone on his back, which should help in this ground, and he goes there with an each-way chance. He'll enjoy the track.
Reporting by David Milnes

All of Saturday's previews and analysis:

Heavyweights battle for staying supremacy in star-studded Long Walk Hurdle (Members' Club subscribers)

Why Long Walk is a far more complex puzzle than Newbury clash would make it seem (Members' Club subscribers)

'He's got an outstanding chance' – the Saturday Jury on the big-race action (Members' Club subscribers)

'It's not just a rematch' – Johnson and Lavelle wary of Long Walk Hurdle dangers

Caribean Boy and Itchy Feet go head-to-head in graduation chase cracker

Venetia Williams' stable staff are off to the races – but as owners

'A real slog' will suit Hill Sixteen in competitive Tommy Whittle Chase

'He's favourite and he deserves to be' – Bridgwater has faith in The Conditional

'Backers of hype horse Buzz are advised to watch his in-running price'

One horse, one jockey, one trainer and one race to watch on Saturday

Read exclusive previews from 6pm daily on racingpost.com and the Racing Post mobile app