4.10 Exeter: the one race you cannot afford to miss on Tuesday

4.10 Exeter
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Most close watchers of jump racing should know that not all heavy ground is equal. Some courses can provide conditions that prove especially testing. Ffos Las is one, Exeter is another.

Those are not the only two examples, but they are the pertinent ones here and it helps to make the case for Some Can Dance, who has been running well on ground at Ffos Las described as heavy and now comes to Exeter, where stormy weather promises to throw up similarly muddy conditions.

Some Can Dance now steps up in trip, which is not a major worry as both of his hurdles wins came over 3m1f at Carlisle, another stiff, right-handed track.

As well as testing stamina, the other thing Exeter is noted for is fences that are relatively easy. That will come as welcome news to followers of Cobolobo, whose jumping is what has held him back on occasion and certainly cost him at Newbury last time. The application of blinkers is presumably to help at the fences, as he has few issues in travelling through his races.

There are a couple of other significant updates on the runners. Firstly, Broadclyst has cheekpieces on after shaping like a stayer at Wincanton on Boxing Day. That form appeals as fairly strong and conditions should suit, headgear or not.

Truckin Away has had wind surgery since his last run and had been shaping very much like the type to benefit from such a procedure.

That consideration may be more significant another day, as whether 3m around here in the mud is what he needs immediately after a wind op is not for certain.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

What do the stats say?

No jockey has had more success at Exeter this season than conditional Bryan Carver, who has four winners from 16 rides for a £1 level-stakes profit of £19.40. He renews his partnership with Broadclyst on whom he was beaten a neck at Wincanton on Boxing Day.

Harry Fry has saddled seven winners from his last 17 runners and bids to maintain his excellent recent form with Over To Sam.

What do connections say?

Jonjo O'Neill jnr, rider of Cobolobo
He disappointed at Newbury last time when he didn't jump as well as he did when winning at Haydock. If he can get back to his Haydock form he should go close. We're putting the blinkers on for the first time and he's schooled well in them.

Noel Williams, trainer of Breaking Waves
He started off the season running well at Cheltenham, but his two starts since then have been pretty underwhelming. He didn't seem interested on his chase debut at Huntingdon last time so we're hoping the cheekpieces sharpen him up. He's a horse with ability but we're on a recovery mission.

Sam Drinkwater, trainer of Some Can Dance
He seems in good form since winning at Ffos Las last month, but he's taking on better opposition. He'll have no problems with the ground and the step up in trip will definitely suit, so he should run well.

Chris Down, trainer of Broadclyst
We were very pleased with his comeback run when he was just beaten at Wincanton. We're just hoping he copes with Exeter as well as he's been a little disappointing in two hurdle runs at the course. We're putting the cheekpieces on to give him a bit of help.

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