Temperament is the forgotten factor in big races - and that's why I'll be opposing this Group 1 contender next time

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To be perfectly honest I’m not a believer in the dark arts of paddock watching. Over years of watching horses closely it’s pretty clear that a top horse can come in all shapes and sizes and only last week we saw the tiny Ezeliya run away with the Oaks. We also don’t see the horses every day so we don’t really know if any specific one is looking in good shape or not.

Where the paddock watchers do have an advantage – and I think this is being borne out more on more on the exchange markets, is being able to see a horse’s pre-race demeanour because the more good races I watch the more I think temperament plays a much bigger part than anyone gives it credit for.

The first thing to say is that temperament can’t make you run any faster. People have always said I have a relaxed demeanour and don’t get too stressed, but I couldn’t beat Billy Bunter over 100 metres even after he’d spent a couple of hours in Mrs Miggins’ pie shop, and being a chilled out dude pre-race doesn’t make you quicker.