Nico de Boinville has got me thinking the Gold Cup's not as cut and dried as the betting suggests

Every year the lead-up to Cheltenham seems to last longer and longer, but one of the perks of the job is that I get to pick the brains of some of the participants and it's very interesting to hear how they think about the sport.

For example, all racing pundits are programmed to deal in form. We aren't closely connected to the horses, we have no way of knowing what's going on in the inner circle and we have no way of affecting the way they run. In contrast the jockeys and trainers are much closer to the action and what Nico de Boinville said the other day made me realise that, while we can all try to find a winner by whatever method we use, if things don't go right in a jumps race – something we can't control – all the work we do can be rendered futile.

De Boinville suggested he won't really know how any race is going to be run until he's down at the start and that all the best chases are won by horses who firstly enjoy a bit of luck and secondly get into a good rhythm.