Who will win the 2023 Irish Champion Stakes based on previous trends?

The Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes (3.20) takes place at Leopardstown on Saturday and the upcoming running of the Group 1 looks set to be a cracker. We have delved through previous Irish Champions and identified key pointers to help you find the winner . . .

Age

Six of the last ten winners have been three-year-olds, including St Mark's Basilica and Luxembourg in the last two years. Three-year-olds were the first three home in the 2022 running.

Three-year-olds head the betting with Derby one-two Auguste Rodin and King Of Steel set to clash again. Last year's National Stakes scorer Al Riffa is another to consider in that age bracket.

Trainer

Aidan O'Brien will seek a fifth successive victory in the feature race on day one of the Irish Champions Festival. Auguste Rodin is the shortest price of his four remaining entries but will need to bounce back from his below-par King George run, while last year's winner Luxembourg could be another leading player for the stable.

Roaring Lion: one of three winners for John Gosden in the past decadeCredit: Caroline Norris (racingpost.com/photos)

The Fugue, Golden Horn and Roaring Lion have scored for John Gosden in the past decade and the trainer, who now holds a joint licence with his son Thady, could run last month's Juddmonte International runner-up Nashwa.

Form

Decorated Knight was the only winner in the last ten years to not arrive to Leopardstown on the back of a win or second.

Five of those winners contested the Juddmonte International on their previous start, although only one of the five were successful at York. That is a plus for Nashwa, who was beaten a length by Mostahdaf on the Knavesmire. 

Only two of the last ten winners scored below Group 1 level on their run before Leopardstown. Alflaila is the only entry to fit that criteria and is the sole last-time-out winner in the potential field.

Distance

Auguste Rodin and King Of Steel are 1m4f winners dropping back to 1m2f and only three winners since 2013 had won over two furlongs further – Golden Horn, Magical and The Fugue. Those three winners had all been successful over this 1m2f trip, unlike the two market principals.

The other six winners – Magical was a dual scorer – had not won over further than 1m2½f. Nashwa and Onesto are the two single-figure priced runners to have won over this distance or half a furlong further.

Rating

The average winning Racing Post Rating in the past decade has been 123 and the last ten winners arrived on the back of a top-two RPR within their last two starts. Onesto and Luxembourg are the two leading contenders to not have recorded one of their top-two RPRs on their most recent two outings.

Verdict

While three-year-olds have fared best in this event in the past decade, two four-year-old fillies have been successful and Nashwa comes out best on the trends. She has Group 1-winning form over this trip – unlike Auguste Rodin and King Of Steel – and the Juddmonte International has produced five of the last ten winners. She recorded her joint best RPR in that race last time, another statistic in her favour.

Nashwa15:20 Leopardstown

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Jky: Tnr: John & Thady Gosden

Read more . . .

Confirmed runners and riders for Saturday's Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown 

2023 Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown: assessing the top contenders 

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