Eight brilliant festival stats from the Cheltenham Ultimate Guide

The 2023 Cheltenham Festival gets under way on Tuesday, March 14 and we've crunched the numbers in the Cheltenham Ultimate Guide, our 104-page special publication out now and available to order here.

As well as rounding up a team of top team of Cheltenham Festival preview panellists, including Paul Kealy, Johnny Dineen and Maddy Playle, each sharing advice for every race at the four-day meeting, we've gone through the form book and unearthed some illuminating big-race trends . . .

Arkle Trophy

2.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 14

All of the last eight winners had at least three chase starts going into this

Further to the above stat, taking an even greater dig into history, it is pretty unusual to find many winners lacking experience over fences. The Pipe yard is the one outlier, with 15-time champion trainer Martin Pipe winning this with Well Chief on the back of one start over fences in 2004, while ten years later, Martin's son David repeated the feat with Western Warhorse, who had also had just a single chase outing.

This year, Willie Mullins bids to follow in the Pipes' footsteps as he is set to run El Fabiolo and Dysart Dynamo off the back of just two chase starts.

Since 2002, all bar four of the winners had recorded a Graded chase victory, which is another negative for Dysart Dynamo, while another concern for Mullins fans is the record of Nicky Henderson in this race, given the master of Seven Barrows has seven victories in total. Mullins has a mere four to his name, so he has a bit of catching up to do.

Verdict

The Henderson factor points to Jonbon here. Unlike the Mullins pair, he has had the three required runs over fences, two of which have been in Graded company.

Jonbon21:43 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

Champion Hurdle

3.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 14

The reigning Supreme Novices' winner has not followed up in the Champion Hurdle for more than half a century

As stats go, this is one of Cheltenham's most extraordinary. Yes, that is right, the last Supreme winner to go on and win the Champion Hurdle the following year was Bula – he won a division of the then Gloucestershire Hurdle in 1970 before landing the 1971 Champion Hurdle. So Constitution Hill will be busting one of the festival's oldest trends if, as expected, he wins on the opening day. Surely this barren run can finally end, can't it?

Another stat which isn't in Constitution Hill's favour is the fact he is yet to win beyond 2m½f under rules. Seven of the last ten winners had won at 2m4f or further.

As many as 15 of the last 16 winners in the Champion had had no more than 13 starts over hurdles, while there have been only two winners as old as nine this century. The principals pass both these stats, although it would rule out Epatante were she to run here.

State Man: won a 2m3½f Grade 1 at Punchestown last April, proving his staminaCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Verdict

History is against the Supreme winner in this race so Constitution Hill is not the tip, and both Willie Mullins' pair, State Man and Vauban, come out just as well in any case. The former won a 2m3½f Grade 1 at Punchestown last April, proving he has got the stamina to match his speed.

State Man21:43 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

Brown Advisory

2.10 Cheltenham, Wednesday March 15

Five of the last eight winners had won a Graded race over hurdles of some description

Still we hear the old chestnut doing the rounds that this is a race suited to the dour stayer. Can we please put this nonsense to bed? The stat above proves that class is a major factor and should not be underestimated.

Stamina is, of course, important, but the last 20 winners began their chase careers short of 2m7f before working their way up in distance. Indeed, this year's favourite, Gordon Elliott's Gerri Colombe, is still yet to try three miles, while one of the best recent pointers to the Brown Advisory has been the 2m4½f Dipper Novices' Chase here in January, won this season by The Real Whacker.

Another trend to focus on is the prevalence of successful seven-year-olds. L'Homme Presse 12 months ago was the seventh of that age group to win in the last ten years, while between 2007-2014 it was seven-year-olds all the way.

Verdict

Paul Nicholls hasn't ruled out this race for Stage Star yet. The Turners looks the most likely destination for him, but he would be the best fit for this contest. A Grade 1 winner over hurdles as a novice, he is the right age and he is most certainly not a slogger!

Stage Star21:43 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

Champion Chase

3.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 15

As many as 15 of the winners since 2002 were second-season novices

In fact, only three of the older winners had not won the race previously and they had all had form in the previous year's Champion Chase anyway. So you can narrow down the field just on this one trend alone.

Of those successful second-season novices, as many as ten had run in the Arkle, all making the frame, and nine were completing the double. What a stat that is for last year's winner Edwardstone.

Twenty of the last 21 winners had previously won a Grade 1. Don't look beyond those who have and it would rule out a few of this season's contenders, including Funambule Sivola and Nube Negra.

Edwardstone: bids to boost the impressive record of Arkle winners in the Champion ChaseCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Verdict

Other than Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls, British trainers have struggled in this race since 2013, but I am not holding that against Alan King, who has won the race before with Voy Por Ustedes (2007) and was also successful in the Viking Flagship days when assistant to David Nicholson. King's reigning Arkle winner Edwardstone comes out best here ahead of last year's victor Energumene and Blue Lord.

Edwardstone21:43 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

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Ryanair Chase

2.50 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 16

All of the winners since 2010 had previously run in a Cheltenham Festival chase

Before Shishkin put his seal on this race with his brilliant Ascot Chase victory last month, it was beginning to look quite a wide-open affair with Allaho, winner for the past two years, already ruled out.

However, if any of you are still looking left-field, just bear the following stat in mind: going back to 2010, all winners had previous chase experience at the festival. Indeed, since 2005 when the race was first run, only two winners did not fit that profile. Five winners had previously run in the Arkle.

The best guide of all, though, has been the King George. Between 2008-16, every winner had previously run in Kempton's Boxing Day showpiece. In fact, three-mile form is an important pointer generally, with four of the last seven winners having recorded their best RPR over staying trips.

Verdict

Both of Nicky Henderson's previous winners had run in the Arkle, although neither were quick enough to win the Grade 1 novice chase on the festival's opening day. The trainer has got a special contender this time in Shishkin, who landed that two-mile prize two years ago. Envoi Allen is also worth a mention as he comes out well, having run in the King George in December.

Shishkin21:43 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

Stayers' Hurdle

3.30 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 16

Only three winners this century had not previously been placed at Cheltenham

The Stayers' Hurdle is not the strongest race for trends, but course form certainly plays a big part. Past runnings are an important form guide, and Flooring Porter last year became the fourth winner to successfully defend his crown since 2002. Two of the other three, Inglis Drever and Big Buck's, did so more than once. But an even better guide is the Cleeve Hurdle over course and distance.

Since 2000, as many as nine winners had run in the Cleeve the previous January, making it much the best trial through the season. It is a good guide for other races at the festival as well.

Six of the last eight winners of this were in their second season over hurdles, so youth is another important factor in the race. Before Flooring Porter brought up the double 12 months ago, the previous three winners had all run in the Albert Bartlett, while the Grade 1 Sefton at Aintree has also been a good recent guide.

Gold Tweet: can he follow up his Cleeve Hurdle win?Credit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Verdict

Both Blazing Khal and Gold Tweet are second-season novices with top Cheltenham form. The French raider (needs to be supplemented) is particularly interesting, having won the Cleeve last time. French-breds have a good record in the Stayers' and, of course, the French-trained Baracouda won this twice in a row in the early noughties.

Triumph Hurdle

1.30 Cheltenham, Friday, March 17

Five of the last nine winners started out on the Flat and all had form over at least 1m4f

This 2m1f on the New course is a proper stamina test for these four-year-olds and former Flat racers won't find it easy to get home. Look towards those whose dam's sire has a stamina index of 11.4 or higher as that is also a fair barometer.

Four of the last nine winners started their careers over jumps, with three coming from France and the other, Tiger Roll, going on to win two Grand Nationals at Aintree.

With Ireland dominant in the Triumph these days, much the best trial has been the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. Both the last two winners of this won the Leopardstown Grade 1 and five of Ireland's six winners in the last ten years ran there, while Britain's Countrywide Flame was also placed in the Spring before winning the Triumph in 2012.

Verdict

This year's Spring Juvenile was won by Gala Marceau from Lossiemouth, but the general consensus was that the runner-up was unlucky, and she looks the strongest of Willie Mullins' big four. Blood Destiny and Zenta are two others to note for Mullins. Zenta has 1m4f form on the Flat and is an interesting alternative to the favourite.

Lossiemouth21:43 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

Gold Cup

3.30 Cheltenham, Friday, March 17

As many as 14 winners this century had not run since mid-January

And 12 of those you can count from no later than New Year's Day (Long Run being an anomaly in 2011 following his success in the rescheduled King George).

Henrietta Knight used to get a lot of stick for rarely running Best Mate, but she started a trend with his three victories, as between 2002-2010 there were as many as seven winners of the Gold Cup who were without a run that calendar year. Last year's victor A Plus Tard was another, having not run since December 28.

All of the last ten winners had no more than one season over hurdles, proving the days when we used to talk about "the next Dawn Run" are long gone.

Bravemansgame: has been kept fresh by Paul Nicholls since his King George VI Chase victoryCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Verdict

Paul Nicholls has kept Bravemansgame fresh since his King George victory and it is a policy that has been proven to work. Of all the British trainers in this race, Nicholls has the best record, having won it four times, and three of those with King George winners, albeit the last occasion was 2009.

Bravemansgame21:43 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

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The Cheltenham Ultimate Guide 2023 is OUT NOW. Pick up your copy from all good newsagents – or order one here.