'25-1 is too big' - ante-post value for the Cheltenham Festival novice hurdles

The Cheltenham Festival is only six weeks away! The Supreme Novices' Hurdle kicks off the best week of jump racing in the world on March 14 and we've pinpointed the best ante-post value for that race and the festival's two other Grade 1 novice hurdles – plus the Triumph . . .

High Definition

Race: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Odds: 14-1

It has proven difficult for High Definition to shake off the 'one-time Derby favourite' tag that seems to accompany him whenever he steps foot on a racecourse, but it’s incredibly rare to see a horse of his ability go hurdling and the 14-1 price available for the Supreme looks a spot of value.

Ivanovich Gorbatov and the ill-fated Sir Erec are examples of smart Flat horses transformed into high-class hurdlers by Joseph O’Brien, but an official mark of 112 rates High Definition the best of the lot and just eight months ago he came to within a neck of claiming Group 1 honours in the Tattersalls Gold Cup.

He defied a market drift to make a winning hurdles debut at Leopardstown over Christmas, and while his jumping will have to be better to win the Supreme, it should be recognised it was his first start over obstacles, and making the running reportedly wasn’t plan A.

His winning time was only fractionally slower than that of Facile Vega over the same course and distance just over 24 hours later, and his ability to travel at a speed most jumpers aren’t bred for will stand him in good stead in the hustle and bustle of a Supreme – often the fastest race of the festival.

High Definition16:01 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

Irish Point

Race: Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

Odds: 25-1

Owners Robcour have a mixed recent history with the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. Bob Olinger landed the race for connections in 2021, and Journey With Me was in contention to place until falling at the final flight fall 12 months ago.

Their most likely representative this year is Irish Point, a Grade 1 bumper winner in France who has been progressive since sent hurdling for Gordon Elliott.

An odds-on Cork maiden hurdle win was followed by a defeat to Marine Nationale by a head in the Grade 1 Royal Bond at Fairyhouse.

Irish Point was kept to Grade 1 company in the Lawlor’s Of Naas earlier this month, where he came with what looked a winning challenge before ultimately failing to run down the front running Champ Kiely – who reversed their Royal Bond form.

The omission of hurdles one and two at Naas may have been expected to suit a former bumper winner, but given Irish Point had hurdled so accurately at Fairyhouse their absence had a detrimental effect. The jumping examination posed at Cheltenham will be more up his street.

Given it’s now 1-1 between Irish Point and Champ Kiely, the fact that one horse is 25-1 with Paddy Power for the Ballymore and the other 7-1 is a little puzzling — particularly given that Irish Point is more than two years the Mullins runner’s junior and therefore presumably open to greater physical and mental improvement.

Irish Point16:01 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

Afadil

Race: Triumph Hurdle

Odds: 25-1

The Triumph Hurdle betting is set up as a match between the Willie Mullins pair Lossiemouth and Blood Destiny, but if there is a horse from left-field with the potential to spoil that party it could be the Paul Nicholls-trained Afadil.

This Camelot gelding cost €255,000 after winning a Craon maiden for Francis Graffard last June, and made a winning start for his new connections at Taunton earlier this month despite almost refusing at the first flight.

Afadil didn’t give his supporters much cause for concern afterwards though, jumping fluently and pulling two lengths clear on the run-in under a motionless Harry Cobden.

That form wouldn’t be anything to shout home about but Paul Nicholls mentioned Afadil’s Triumph Hurdle entry afterwards and nominated February’s Victor Ludorum at Haydock as a potential target — a contest he has won with the likes of Frodon, Quel Destin and Monmiral in recent seasons.

Those comments intimated that Afadil ranked highly amongst Nicholls’s juvenile hurdlers, and if so the 25-1 available looks a generous price.

Afadil16:01 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

Letsbeclearaboutit

Race: Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

Odds: 25-1

The Grade 2 Lyons Of Limerick Jaguar Land Rover Novice Hurdle rates a bona fide Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle trial given that the 2015, 2017 and 2021 Albert Bartlett winners had all taken part in the race prior to their victories, while Fury Road (third by a neck in the 2020 Albert Bartlett) had landed the contest in 2019.

The latest renewal of this informative affair saw Gigginstown’s Favori De Champdou score decisively, but this eight-year-old has had his injury problems and from an ante-post perspective the safer play is to side with the runner-up Letsbeclearaboutit.

Only beaten by Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard in five bumper starts, this Flemensfirth gelding missed last season but has been progressive since returning to the track, deservedly getting off the mark at the fourth attempt over hurdles when landing a Punchestown maiden by 22 lengths earlier this month.

Getting his head back in front will have boosted Letsbeclearaboutit’s confidence, and trainer Gavin Cromwell knows what is required to land the Albert Bartlett, having sent out the 2021 winner Vanillier — who had also prepped for the race with a second-place finish at Limerick.

For a horse with high-class bumper form to his name — and stamina in abundance — the odds of 25-1 available for the Albert Bartlett look good value.

Letsbeclearaboutit16:01 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr:

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How the markets look

Supreme Novices' Hurdle (1.30, March 14)

Ladbrokes: 4-5 Facile Vega, 4 Marine Nationale, 8 Impaire Et Passe, 10 Tahmuras, 12 Gaelic Warrior, 14 Rare Edition, Irish Point, High Definition, 16 bar

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (1.30, March 15)

Coral: 5-2 Hermes Allen, 7-2 Impaire Et Passe, 6 Champ Kiely, Gaelic Warrior, 10 Facile Vega, 12 Good Land, Inthepocket, 14 bar

Triumph Hurdle (1.30, March 17)

Paddy Power: 11-8 Lossiemouth, 7-2 Blood Destiny, 10 Comfort Zone, Gala Marceau, 14 Scriptwriter, 20 St Donats, 25 bar

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (2.50, March 17)

Betfair: 5 Embassy Gardens, 11-2 Hiddenvalley Lake, 8 Corbetts Cross, Three Card Brag, 10 Sandor Clegane, Weveallbeencaught, 12 American Mike, Favori De Champdou, Grangeclare West, 16 bar

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2023 Cheltenham Festival betting: ante-post markets for all 28 races  

Who is entered for the Supreme, Ballymore, Triumph and Albert Bartlett? 

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