The sexiest system in racing: punters will want Derby quotes for any Aidan O'Brien flop in the next Guineas

If one of Aidan O'Brien's finishes out the back in the 2,000 Guineas next year, bookies will be shortening them right up for the Derby. That's the sexiest system in horseracing after City Of Troy mimicked Auguste Rodin with an impressive victory in the Epsom Classic four weeks after turning in a hopeless effort at Newmarket.

Of course, you can always forgive a good horse for one bad run. But when that bad run is also the horse's only run in the past seven months, while his quality runs were grouped together in the three-month span before that, it is only natural to wonder whether his dominance is a thing of the past.

Julian Muscat recently pointed out in these pages that Auguste Rodin had been the first Guineas flop to win the Derby since Psidium in 1961. He described a pattern "so firmly established that it might have been cast in stone," of Derby winners having shown up well in the Guineas, if they took part in it at all.