2024 Scottish Grand National contenders: assessing the main players for the big race on Saturday
The Coral Scottish Grand National (3.35) takes place at Ayr on Saturday and a typically competitive field is set to line up for this valuable staying handicap chase. Here we go through the form of the leading contenders and produce an early verdict on who will come out on top.
Macdermott
Form: -682F1
Strengths: He has been well backed for this contest since his trainer Willie Mullins, who is chasing the British trainers’ championship, landed last weekend’s Grand National with I Am Maximus.
He got off the mark at the fifth time of asking over fences when running out a 12-length winner of a 3m½f handicap chase at Fairyhouse this month.
He is open to improvement, particularly in the jumping department, and shapes as though he will appreciate a dour test such as this.
Weaknesses: He runs off a 16lb higher mark than at Fairyhouse and this is by far his toughest test.
SP forecast: 8-1
Mr Incredible
Form: 23U-2U
Strengths: A talented, if somewhat quirky, staying chaser who has shown an aptitude for staying handicap chases in Britain. He has recorded a Racing Post Rating of at least 150 in his placed efforts in the Classic Chase, Kim Muir and Midlands Grand National over the last two seasons.
He was sent off a 10-1 chance for last weekend’s Grand National and hadn’t been asked any serious questions when unseating at the Chair. This looks like a weaker contest.
On the back of his Midlands National run and Aintree unseat he comes into this race a relatively fresh horse compared to rivals that have raced more frequently this season.
Weaknesses: He was a little reluctant to line up at Aintree and has refused to race previously, while he remains winless since landing a beginners chase at Naas in November 2021.
SP forecast: 10-1
Git Maker
Form: 11-162
Strengths: A fairly consistent eight-year-old who has won three times from seven starts over fences, the most recent success coming on his seasonal debut at Lingfield in November.
He was potentially unsuited by the good ground conditions at Ascot in December and benefitted from the return to a softer surface when chasing home Inothewayurthinkin in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last month.
He bumped into a well-treated horse that day with the winner since following up in a Grade 1 at the Grand National meeting, and he was 18 lengths clear of the third-placed Whacker Clan.
Weaknesses: He tends to run well fresh so this 37-day turnaround from Cheltenham may come too quick.
SP forecast: 6-1f
Anglers Crag
Form: 7-1111
Strengths: Is unbeaten in four starts since joining Brian Ellison from David Pipe, culminating in a neck success in the Eider Chase at Newcastle last time out.
His handicap mark has risen 28lb due to those wins, but he appeared to win with a bit in hand last time, having lost momentum after an error at the second-last fence.
The slight drop in trip looks a plus for his chances and he’s clearly in excellent form.
Weaknesses: He has had a tough few months and this could prove to be one race too many.
SP forecast: 10-1
My Silver Lining
Form: 122123
Strengths: Has produced form figures of 122123 in six starts this season, climbing 20lb in the handicap.
She landed the Classic Chase at Warwick earlier this year and has since been beaten a length and a half in Haydock’s Grand National Trial and two and a quarter lengths in last month’s Midlands Grand National.
Her Midlands National effort can be potentially upgraded as she was found post-race to have lost her left-fore shoe.
Weaknesses: She races from a career-high mark today and looks vulnerable to a better-handicapped rival.
Odds: 16-1
How about the remainder?
Beauport had Mr Incredible and My Silver Lining behind when running out an 18-1 winner of the Midlands Grand National and a 5lb rise looks manageable, for all that he does not have the most consistent profile.
Mr Vango came unstuck in the Grade 2 National Hunt Chase at last month’s Cheltenham Festival but will remains open to significant improvement on just his fourth chase start.
Ballygrifincottage represents Dan Skelton and after a disappointing 2023, where he was pulled up in three of his four starts, he shaped as though a return to winning ways was imminent when a three-quarter-length second at Sandown last time.
Verdict
The unexposed Macdermott has unsurprisingly proven popular with punters as trainer Willie Mullins hunts down a first British trainers’ championship. His jumping is a cause for concern, however, and preference instead goes to Anglers Crag. The nine-year-old has won all four starts for trainer Brian Ellison and was value for further than the winning margin in the Eider Chase last time out. He has been freshened up since that run and an 8lb rise shouldn’t prevent him from bringing up the five-timer.
Read these next:
2024 Scottish Grand National: the runners, the odds, the verdict
Confirmed runners and riders for the 2024 Scottish Grand National at Ayr
2024 Scottish Grand National tips and predictions: why this horse can win at Ayr
Who will win the 2024 Scottish Grand National based on previous trends?
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