Shishkin shakes up the Ten to Follow pecking order as Estimate soars to top of leaderboard

Almost three months into the Tote Ten to Follow 2023-24 jumps competition, Shishkin, the ninth most popular pick in the game, at last managed to start a race, finish a race and collect enough points to shake up the top of the leaderboard.

The 22.93 points the Nicky Henderson-trained ten-year-old earned in Saturday’s Denman Chase puts him nowhere near the top ten list of leading scorers this season – in fact he only just scrapes into the top 80 – but for the Estimate team it was a crucial success as the inclusion of the enigmatic chaser raises them 13 places to the top of the competition leaderboard on 540.58 points. They nudge aside the post-Dublin Racing Festival leader, 155 And Counting 2, who is only 0.43 points behind.

Shishkin’s win is significant for the reason that 32% of teams have him on board, whereas stablemate Iberico Lord, the biggest scorer of the weekend with 48.30 points, represents only 0.3% of teams.

Iberico Lord moves into third spot in the list thanks to the 25 additional points for winning the Betfair Hurdle, the last bonus race before the Cheltenham Festival.

That is a timely reminder that all players – unless they are totally delighted with their team’s performance –should now be thinking about the substitutions they can make in the pre-festival transfer window which will operate between March 4 and 11, up to the eve of the first day of action in Gloucestershire.

Points already accrued from a horse substituted out are retained and the replacement starts scoring immediately after being subbed in.

There is already a good balance to Estimate’s team, which includes the Willie Mullins-trained novice chaser Grangeclare West who features in just 1% of lists so could provide a significant differential. 

The other team to rise into the top ten is Ormonde. They now reside in fifth spot thanks to Shishkin and the recent Cheltenham Trials day success of Ga Law, who represents just 0.2% of teams and has contributed 26.90 points already.

Latest standings

LEADING HORSES
1 Galopin Des Champs 69.7% 105.00 points
2 State Man 50.7% 103.80
3 Iberico Lord 0.3% 74.30
4 Jonbon 66.6% 74.05
5 Elixir De Nutz 0.1% 72.50
6 Datsalrightgino 0.3% 71.10
7 Hewick 0.4% 68.50
8 Nassalam 0.1% 63.50
9 Coko Beach 0.2% 59.80
10 Maxxum 0.2% 59.20

LEADING TEAMS
1 Estimate 540.58 points
2 155 and Counting 2 540.15
3 Golden Fleece 539.07
4 More letters than numbers 33 538.50
5 Ormonde 534.98
6 Pep7 530.74
7 Arkle 527.27
8 Trish knows best 7 524.47
9 AB41 522.65
9 Sir Ivor 522.65

LEADER'S STABLE - Estimate 
Galopin Des Champs 105.00 points
State Man 103.80
Jonbon 74.05
Bob Olinger 58.20
El Fabiolo 49.50
Fastorslow 46.20
Grangeclare West 32.50
Constitution Hill 27.20
Shishkin 22.93
Allaho 21.20

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