Scotland v England predictions: Calcutta Cup clash to go the way of the hosts

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for Scotland v England in the Six Nations on Saturday.

Where to watch

BBC One, 4.45pm Saturday

Best bet

Scotland to win by one to 12 points
1pt 2-1 Betfred

Scotland penalty first scoring play
2pts 8-5 bet365

Match preview

England coach Eddie Jones has claimed that Scotland are "red-hot favourites" for this Calcutta Cup clash and while he may be getting a little carried away, the Scots have been cut from 2-1 shots to close to even-money in the last week.

Scotland won at Twickenham last year to extend their record to one defeat in the last four showdowns between the two, but it is only over the last week that the odds have really come in as the team line-ups have taken shape.

Captain Owen Farrell, forwards Courtney Lawes and Jonny Hill plus wingers Jonny May and Anthony Watson have all been ruled out for England and there are new combinations all over the field.

Scotland, by contrast, name 13 of the players who started the final match of last year's Six Nations campaign - a dramatic victory over France in Paris.

Among the changes for England, Marcus Smith makes his first Six Nations start, and while the Harlequins fly-half has always looked assured and confident since making his club debut at 18, there may be a lack of fluency behind him.

Henry Slade lines up outside Smith at 12 alongside Elliot Daly, who moves from the back three to outside centre having played little rugby this season and who was initially dropped from the England squad last month.

Freddie Steward looks a good selection at full-back given that Scotland are likely to unleash some big aerial bombs. He makes up an unfamiliar back three with Joe Marchant and Max Malins.

Scotland are sure to look at ways of unsettling this untested England line-up, starting at the breakdown, where they have proved so successful in recent head-to-heads.

A combative back row of Jamie Ritchie, Hamish Watson and Matt Fagerson were at the forefront as Scotland forced England to concede 15 penalties when the teams met last year, and the same trio line up again. The odds about Scotland opening the scoring with a penalty look worth taking.

Backing Scotland at cramped odds makes little appeal given that they were a much bigger price just days ago. But in what is usually a low-scoring clash, siding with a home win by one to 12 points may be a better option.

Just one of the last eight Murrayfield meetings has produced more than 30 points, while all four of Scotland's home Six Nations wins over England have been by a margin of one to 12 points.

Heavy rain is forecast throughout the day in Edinburgh and although that may clear by kick-off, conditions could still be difficult.

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