England v Wales predictions: Dragons should keep the scoreline respectable

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for England v Wales in the Six Nations.

Where to watch

ITV & S4C, 4.45pm Saturday

Best bet

Wales +14
2pts Evs BoyleSports
M Smith to score a try
1pt 5-2Betfair, Paddy Power

Match preview

Wales captain Dan Biggar has called on his team to rekindle the spirit of 2015 when they run out at Twickenham, and his battling side can do enough to at least stay close.

Fly-half Biggar kicked the winning penalty when Wales ran out 28-25 winners in a Rugby World Cup pool match in 2015, a result that was the catalyst for England's early exit.

Bookmakers don't see a repeat coming and offer Wales a 14-point handicap start, the same number of points they were handed for their opening encounter against Ireland, which they lost 29-7.

If Ireland can cover that line England will feel they ought to as well. But Wales took a big step up in performance to beat Scotland last week and their dogged defence will stand them in good stead at Twickenham, where narrow margins have been the norm in this fixture.

England have beaten Wales twice at Twickenham by exactly 14 points in the last six years - in a 2019 Rugby World Cup warm-up and in a 2016 summer international - but the last time they beat that mark in a competitive match was in 2006.

Wales's last three Six Nations visits to London have ended in defeats by three, six and four points, and England have failed to cover the handicap in four of the last five showdowns.

While England coach Eddie Jones was pleased enough with a bonus-point victory against Italy last week, he also acknowledged his side hadn't been as sharp as he would want in attack, and he has been dealt a further blow with the news that centre Manu Tuilagi is unable to make his long-awaited return in an England shirt.

Courtney Lawes is able to make his first start of the year in the pack, which gives Jones another strong ball-carrying option, but with wingers Jonny May and Anthony Watson already missing the England backline has not looked threatening enough.

Half of England's six tries in this tournament have been scored by forwards and another two by fly-half Marcus Smith, who has had the most success at unpicking defences and could be worth backing to again cross the whitewash.

Wales worked so hard in defence last week and will surely be up for the fight again, and it may take Smith's trickery and footwork to get past them.

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