Rugby World Cup 2023: South Africa v Scotland predictions and rugby union tips: Boks unlikely to walk all over Scots

Where to watch South Africa v Scotland

ITV1, 4.45pm Sunday

Best bets

Scotland +12 2pts 10-11 Hills

Darcy Graham anytime tryscorer
1pt 11-5 bet365

South Africa v Scotland odds

South Africa 1-5
Scotland 4-1
Draw 33-1

South Africa v Scotland handicap

South Africa -12
Scotland +12

South Africa v Scotland preview

If Scotland are to progress from Pool B they’ll need to do something they’ve only done once in the last 32 years; beat a tier-one nation at a Rugby World Cup.

The Scots are out to prove bookmakers wrong after being priced up to finish best of the rest in the pool, behind the world’s number one side Ireland and reigning champions South Africa, who they face in Marseille on Sunday.

And yet, despite a dismal record of 23 defeats in 28 meetings against the Springboks and the pain of a pool-stage exit four years ago, hope springs eternal for a Scotland side who are better than a double-digit handicap implies.

Gone are the days of the Scots succumbing to heavy defeats. They’ve lost by more than 20 points only once since their 2019 World Cup campaign in Japan got off to the worst possible start with a 27-3 defeat to Ireland.

A repeat of that Yokohama horror show against the Boks would appear unlikely, particularly if mercurial fly-half Finn Russell can prise open South Africa's defence. 

Russell has been at the top of his game in 2023 and now has more pieces around him to benefit from his exceptional vision than at any other time in his international career. 

Huw Jones and Sione Tuipulotu have proven a potent midfield pairing, while wingers Duhan van der Merwe and Darcy Graham are world-class finishers.

The prolific Graham has scored seven tries in his last seven appearances and appeals as an anytime tryscorer option at the Stade Velodrome with Townsend eager to see his team try and stretch the game.

Having scored at least three tries in 12 of their last 15 Tests, Scotland’s attack should ask questions of a Springboks defence which had a high missed-tackle count during the recent Rugby Championship. 

Turnovers have also been an issue for the reigning world champions, who can perhaps put that down to trying to play more expansively. And given their slow starts at recent World Cups - they’ve lost their last two opening games and beaten Wales by a single point in 2011 - Scotland may have a sniff.

But let’s not get carried away. This is still a remarkable South Africa side blessed with a deep pool of monstrous forwards who are capable of suffocating Scotland if allowed to get on top. 

They’ve won seven of their last eight Test matches and completed their World Cup preparations by inflicting a record defeat on the All Blacks in a showcase game at Twickenham. 

Seven of their starting line-up on Sunday started the 2019 World Cup final and anything other than a repeat of their title victory of four years ago would be viewed as a failure by South African rugby's hierarchy.

The Springboks power game and clinical nature may ultimately prove the difference in Marseille, but not before Scotland show they are ready to mix it up in the World Cup's 'Pool of Death'.

Teams

South Africa: D Willemse, K-L Arendse, J Kriel, D de Allende, C Kolbe, M Libbok, F de Klerk; J Wiese, P-S du Toit, S Kolisi (c), F Mostert, E Etzebeth, F Malherbe, M Marx, S Kitshoff

Replacements: B Mbonambi, O Nche, T Nyakane, RG Snyman, M van Staden, D Vermeulen, G Williams, W le Roux

Scotland: B Kinghorn, D Graham, H Jones, S Tuipulotu, D van der Merwe, F Russell, B White; P Schoeman G Turner, Z Fagerson, R Gray, G Gilchrist, J Ritchie, R Darge, J Dempsey

Replacements: D Cherry, J Bhatti, WP Nel, S Cummings, M Fagerson, A Price, C Redpath, O Smith

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport