Rugby World Cup 2023 Pool D predictions and team-by-team guide: Pumas to pick off section rivals

Best bet

Argentina to win Pool D
2pts Evs Coral, Ladbrokes

Pool D preview

Argentina stunned the rugby world when winning Pool D the last time France hosted the Rugby World Cup in 2007, but there would be far fewer eyebrows raised if they were to repeat that trick. 

The Pumas were third in the betting to top a section containing the French and Ireland 16 years ago but return to L'Hexagone vying for group favouritism with a desperate England side. 

Runners-up at the last World Cup and reigning Six Nations champions when the draw was made in 2020, England would previously have expected to make light work of their group rivals, only to experience a dramatic decline since.

The decision to replace Eddie Jones with Steve Borthwick at the end of last year hasn’t sparked the revival English rugby’s hierarchy had hoped for and they head into Saturday’s potential pool decider against Argentina on a run of five defeats in six matches.

The Pumas form doesn’t make for much better reading but they've at least shown they can raise their game, knocking over England, New Zealand and Australia away from home since last August.

Pool D shapes up as a two-horse race but a rejuvenated Samoa side may run the top two close having benefitted greatly from changes to the eligibility criteria. They should be best of the rest, ahead of Japan, pool winners four years ago but a long way short of previous standards and debutants Chile. 

England tend to get their act together for World Cups and shouldn't suffer the ignominy of a second pool stage exit, but they are too short a price to win the section when compared to a more promising Argentina side.

Team-by-team guide

England

They were beaten finalists four years ago, but the bar is significantly lower for England in France after a turbulent build-up. 

The Red Rose have slipped to their joint-lowest world ranking of eighth after a run of eight wins from the last 22 matches.

Steve Borthwick’s back-to-basics approach hasn’t produced the kind of quick turnaround he enjoyed with Leicester and red cards for experienced operators Owen Farrell and Billy Vunipola in warm-up matches add to his selection dilemma for the all-important clash with Argentina.

England fans can find crumbs of comfort in the nation’s decent track record at past World Cups, which includes 26 wins from 31 games in the pool stage.

Strengths
England boast extensive World Cup experience with 16 members of the squad having gone to Japan 2019 and there’s flair amongst the backs if they can get on the ball.

Weaknesses
A leaky defence, blunt attack and set-piece struggles sit top of a list of issues facing a talented but underperforming squad.

Prospects 
Despite all their problems, a semi-final berth isn’t out of the question for England, who should get out of the pool before a winnable quarter-final, but they’ll need to make significant improvements on both sides of the ball to go any further.

Argentina

Argentina enjoyed their best result at a World Cup the last time it was staged in France, taking home the bronze medal in 2007. 

It’s been a mixed bag of results from the Pumas since then, including pool-stage heartache in 2019 when Emiliano Boffelli’s last-minute penalty in a win-or-go-home match with France went wide.

But since Michael Cheika’s appointment in 2022, Argentina have gone up a notch, claiming a few notable scalps, and they bring a squad to France with a good blend of youth and experience.

Fly-half Nicolas Sanchez has made a timely return to fitness for his fourth World Cup, while winger Mateo Carreras is one of 11 Premiership players in the Argentina party and leads a more potent bunch of backs than the Pumas have previously produced.

Strengths
The traditionally strong Argentinian pack may not be as monstrous as it once was but remains a handful and is now complimented by some exciting backs. Argentina have also been deadly from the kicking tee over the last 18 months.

Weaknesses
Discipline under the fiery Cheika has been an issue at times, as has consistency, with Argentina recording back-to-back wins once in the last four years.

Prospects 
Argentina’s recent scalp-taking antics and a kind draw make them outsiders to reach a first final. Anything short of a semi-final berth would be a disappointing effort.

Japan

Japan looked ready to join the ranks of the Rugby Championship after impressively reaching a first quarter-final as pool winners at the 2019 World Cup. 

But it’s been a fallow few years since hosting the tournament with Covid and the disbanding of Super Rugby’s Tokyo-based Sunwolves francise knocking the Brave Blossoms out of their stride.

Four wins in four years, some comprehensive warm-up losses and reports of a split in the camp set the stage for Jamie Joseph’s largely excellent tenure as head coach to end badly.

Joseph has selected a squad featuring 14 players aged 30 or over, including the heroic Michael Leitch, raising some concerns, while the tactical decision to kick more in games and not retain possession has yet to pay dividends.

Strengths
Japan’s tactical versatility and ability to score tries from seemingly nothing remain, if less pronounced, and they are highly competitive, only suffering three losses by 20 points or more in the last 12 meetings with tier one sides.

Weaknesses
Japan’s lack of size up front has been their achilles heel for years and remains an issue, while an ageing squad, issues from the kicking tee and a move to a style that doesn't seem to suit them jump out as concerns.

Prospects 
Having won seven of their last eight pool-stage matches at the World Cup, it would be wrong to write Japan off entirely, but performances in the build-up suggest back-to-back quarter-final berths may be a stretch.

Samoa

Samoan rugby was at a low ebb when they crashed out of the 2019 World Cup without firing a shot in anger amid a backdrop of off-field issues. 

But changes to world rugby’s eligibility rules and the appointment of ex-centre Seilala Mapusua as head coach have helped the Pacific islanders change course, winning nine of their last 12 games in the build-up.

Discipline and decision-making has improved under Mapusua, while having three former All Blacks and ex-Australia fly-half Christian Leali’ifano join the squad has brought a bit of added quality to Samoa’s usual hard-hitting, no-nonsense style

A narrow defeat to Ireland in their final warm-up demonstrated Samoa can mix it with tier-one nations and has them dreaming of a first quarter-final appearance since 1995.

Strengths
Having previously lacked credible options at fly-half they can now call upon either Christian Leali’ifano and Lima Sopoaga, while the pack looks as powerful as any Samoa have put together.

Weaknesses
Samoa’s set piece remains a work in progress and they've shown a worrying tendency to collapse when things go against them.

Prospects 
Samoa are the unknown quantity in Pool D, capable of producing a surprise or two, and look to have the quality to challenge for a quarter-final spot, albeit they may ultimately fall short.

Chile

Chile hadn’t made it past the second round of qualifying previously but stunned tournament regulars Canada and then the USA over two legs to book passage to their first Rugby World Cup.

The South Americans are now looking ahead to their first meetings with tier-one opposition since the 1950s and will be highly motivated for the clash with neighbours Argentina.

Fly-half and star man Rodrigo Fernandez scored the 2022 try of the year in Chile’s clash with the United States and is the standout talent for a nation keen to leave its mark.

Strengths
Chile showed great resilience during qualifying, while conditioning coach Craig White, part of the Uruguay coaching staff that masterminded a win over Fiji in 2019, should make sure they are fighting fit.

Weaknesses
Six straight defeats in the build-up to the World Cup may have dented confidence and their lack of experience at the highest level could be exposed by the more wily sides in the pool.

Prospects
Coach Pablo Lemoine has selected a young, fearless squad, featuring four pairs of siblings, and although they will be lucky to claim a point in a tough section, their style of play may win over the neutrals.

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