Rugby World Cup 2023 Pool A predictions and team-by-team guide: Basement battle favours Los Teros

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Namibia to finish bottom
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Pool A preview 

This section is made up of two straight shootouts – between France and New Zealand at the top, and then between Namibia and Uruguay at the bottom.

The big two go head to head in the tournament’s opening match, and although that contest will be billed as a crunch showdown, the result itself may have little bearing on the tournament outcome.

Both sides are 1-500 to progress and finishing first or second in the pool doesn’t bring a huge advantage.

The draw will pit them against the winners and runners-up in Pool B, which is an equally tough head-to-head between South Africa and Ireland unless Scotland can pull off an upset.

France famously lost to New Zealand in their opening pool match of 2011, and then again to Tonga, but still made the final, while in 2019 New Zealand beat South Africa in their first pool match but were knocked out in the semis while the Springboks went on to lift the trophy.

The battle at the bottom may be the more telling one, and the schedule may favour Uruguay.

Their clash with Namibia will be just their third match while their opponents will be playing their fourth and final game with a six-day turnaround from taking on France.

Los Teros were 26-18 winners when the teams met in ­Montevideo last month and look well placed to back up that result.

Team-by-team guide

New Zealand

The All Blacks are used to arriving at World Cups as the most feared team and with a dominant record, but the last three years have brought turmoil and troubled waters.

From a first home defeat to Argentina in 2020, a run of six defeats in eight matches from the autumn of 2021 to the summer of 2022, a first home series defeat, then a record loss to South Africa last time out, the alarm bells have kept ringing. 

On the plus side, the All Blacks have shown themselves able to bounce back from setbacks time and again – that landmark defeat to the Pumas was followed by a 38-0 victory two weeks later – and they have the experience and nous to get out of the most difficult situations.

Strengths
The depth of their squad, particularly their playmakers, and devastating back-three runners.

Weaknesses
Their line-out was all at sea in defeat to the Springboks last time out.

Prospects
Nothing short of lifting the trophy for the fourth time will be enough to satisfy their fans.

France

Perhaps the biggest story of the last four years in World Rugby has been the transformation of France, from the flaky, mercurial unfathomable side who managed to lose two pool matches in 2011 yet still reach the final, to Grand Slam winners last year and serious World Cup contenders on home soil.

Coach Fabian Galthie has overseen the turnaround, with the support of Shaun Edwards, and as individuals and as a collective this team really catch the eye.

But the loss of fly-half Romain Ntamack on the eve of the tournament is a huge blow and may unsettle Les Bleus for their opening pool clash with the All Blacks.

Strengths
A powerful pack, organised defence and sharp attacking backline give them a perfect winning profile.

Weaknesses
Losing Ntamack is a huge blow especially given his partnership with Toulouse teammate Antoine Dupont.

Prospects
New Zealand first up, probably South Africa or Ireland in the quarters, Les Bleus face a tough trip to the semis.

Italy

The Azzurri have had good years and bad years since joining the Six Nations in 2000 but the World Cup has been pretty much an unchangeable run – third place in their pool eight times out of nine, apart from 1999 when they lost to Tonga.

And there doesn’t seem to be much chance of that changing this year as they face pool matches against tournament favourites France and New Zealand, plus clashes with two of the weakest sides in the field.

Victories over Wales and Australia in 2022 were encouraging but those results haven’t been built on and defeat to Georgia last summer was a step back.

Strengths
Head coach Kieran Crowley has huge international experience, while in the back three Monty Ioane, Paolo Odogwu and Ange Capuozzo give them a cutting edge.

Weaknesses
The Azzurri simply seem to have found their level and a giant leap forward just never seems to materialise.

Prospects
Two wins, two defeats, third place. Again.

Namibia

World Cup regulars for the last six tournaments, the Welwitschias are still looking for their first win at the tournament and have shipped an average of more than 60 points in their pool matches, which include a record 142-0 defeat to Australia in 2003.

But Namibia were left frustrated in 2019 when their final pool game against Canada was called off due to Typhoon Hagibis, denying them their one chance of a victory, so there is no doubt they will target their last pool match against Uruguay and may even hold back in tougher fixtures earlier to make sure they are ready.

Strengths
Had coach Allister Coetzee was on the South Africa coaching team in their World Cup success of 2007 and was head coach from 2016 to 2018.

Weaknesses
The squad lacks experience in top-level leagues and a lack of exposure to top-tier nations.

Prospects
Fourth or fifth – and it will come down to their final clash with Uruguay, who were 26-18 when the teams met last month in Montevideo.

Uruguay

This is Uruguay’s third successive World Cup appearance and fifth in all.

After losing all of their pool matches at the 2015 tournament, Los Teros opened with a shock victory over Fiji in 2019.

That result has to be put in perspective as the Fijians were playing just four days after a hard-fought defeat to Australia, and Uruguay then lost their next three.

But they covered big handicaps against Wales and Australia in that tournament and in all four of their pool matches in 2015.

The majority of the squad are drawn from Montevideo club side Penarol and scrum-half Santiago Arata of Castres is the only player from a top-flight league.

Strengths
Their most winnable match is against Namibia and the schedule favours them over the African side.

Weaknesses
There’s very little big-league experience in the squad compared to previous tournaments.

Prospects
This is a tougher pool than in 2019 but Los Teros have a track record of staying inside big handicaps.

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