Rugby World Cup 2023 outright predictions and rugby union betting tips: Black clouds over New Zealand all set to clear

Best bets

New Zealand to win Rugby World Cup
3pts 3-1 general

Argentina to go out in semi-finals
3pts 13-8 general

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Rugby World Cup outright preview 

The tenth Rugby World Cup is about to kick off and for the tenth time New Zealand go off as favourites – but only just, and they’ve got company.

The last time the tournament was staged in France, in 2007, the All Blacks were just 4-7 to take the trophy and only once, in 2003 when Clive ­Woodward’s England topped the rankings, have they truly had a close market rival.

This time the betting is wide open, as New Zealand share top billing with hosts France, while close behind them are holders South Africa and Six Nations Grand Slam winners Ireland, ranked the number one side in the world.

It’s 12-1 bar that awesome foursome and the top of the market looks to be the place to find the winners.

Best bet
New Zealand to win the Rugby World Cup

At past World Cups New Zealand have always turned up as the team to be feared and the team to beat, usually backed up by a dominant record on the Test stage.

That’s not the case this time, though, and a troubled and turbulent build-up started not long after their semi-final exit in 2019, and twists and turns have kept popping up right until the last minute.

Alarm bells started ringing in 2020 with a home defeat to Argentina, the following year ended with defeats to Ireland and France, while 2022 brought a historic first home series loss to Ireland.

Over that period All Blacks fans started to seriously doubt their team as they hit an unprecedented run of six defeats in eight matches.

It looked as if the ship had been steadied as 2023 opened with five successive wins, and even a fightback from 14-0 down to beat Australia 23-20 was taken as a positive that the Kiwi battling spirit was as alive as ever.

But a record 35-7 reverse to South Africa in their final warm-up match at Twickenham just a fortnight before the start of the tournament has put them on the back foot and has the doubters out again.

So where is the incentive to get with the All Blacks? Well, one thing they have always demonstrated is an ability to bounce right back and rather than seeing that heavy defeat to the Springboks as a negative it might prove a boost.

Losing 25-15 to Argentina in 2020 hurt the All Blacks, but when they faced the same opponents in their next match two weeks later they beat them 38-0 before demolishing lowly Tonga 102-0, sparking a run of ten successive wins.

And if that defeats acts as a wake-up call it couldn’t have come at a better time as their opening match in the tournament is against hosts and co-favourites France.

It’s not a do-or-die match as both teams are 1-500 to qualify from their pool and coming first or second isn’t a huge issue as Ireland and South Africa are favourites to be their quarter-final opponents.

But while New Zealand go into the match fit and firing, France are still having to work around the loss of fly-half Romain Ntamack, the key man in their strong run of form.

Once that game is played the pool plays out nicely for both teams, with matches against Italy, Namibia and Uruguay, allowing them to reach the knockout stage reasonably fresh, but the pool path looks much tougher for market rivals Ireland and South Africa.

Those teams play in Pool B where they will also face a determined Scotland side, up to fifth in the world rankings, plus Tonga and Romania, neither seemingly capable of causing an upset but both renowned as strong physical sides.

Ireland’s schedule looks especially tough as they face the pool makeweights first before taking on the Boks and Scots, and although there’s a week off in the middle, that would mean to win the trophy they need to win five consecutive games against top-tier nations in six weeks, a huge ask for any team.

Ireland have a strong first team but there is a lack of depth in some areas and it has cost them before, such as in 2015 when they were missing Paul O’Connell, Johnny Sexton and Peter O’Mahony among others in their surprise quarter-final defeat to Argentina.

Sexton, at 38, is a concern given the way he puts his body on the line in matches, and a heavy run of games could take its toll on the Irish.

South Africa look a more robust outfit but they are also without their first-choice fly-half in Handre Pollard and replacement Manie Libbok has not convinced with his goalkicking, a key element in knockout rugby.

Those are major negatives against New Zealand’s market rivals but the All Blacks have enough going for them to suggest they can kick off with a win and then hit the knockout stage in the strongest shape possible.

Other selection
Argentina to go out in semi-final

With the top four teams all housed in two pools and set to go head to head in the quarter-finals, there is scope for a team from the other half of the draw to make it through to the last four.

Former winners England and Australia are housed in that section along with 2019 semi-finalists Wales, but Argentina look the best bet to add a third semi-final appearance to their CV.

Los Pumas have beaten England and Australia in the last year and have become increasingly battle-hardened in the Rugby Championship.

Under Australian coach Michael Cheika they look set for a strong tournament showing. 

They face England first up at the weekend and can point to a win at Twickenham last November, while England are on a dire run of just one win in six.

They are just 11-10 to reach the last four but a semi-final appearance would pit Argentina against one of the big four and that looks to be as far as they can go, so the 13-8 about them bowing out at that stage looks preferable.

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