Sequence of unsuccessful shots may be about to come to an end for Chelsea

It would be a headline to grab anyone's attention - Chelsea: from 1,000-1 to 4-11.

Kai Havertz scored from the penalty spot to give them the lead in the 76th minute of a game against Everton. They did not score in the rest of that game or in any of the four games they have played since. They did not beat Everton and it goes without saying that they did not win any of the other games.

Chelsea have played for more than six hours without scoring. They took 61 shots. In the Premier League and Champions League it takes between nine and ten shots on average to score a goal. The chance of an ordinary team in those competitions taking 61 shots without scoring is almost 1,000-1.

Chelsea should be a better than average team in the Premier League because of the money the new owners have spent on players. They have not been. They sit 11th out of 20. They have fallen short primarily in attack.

Chelsea in the Premier League have conceded only two goals fewer than leaders Arsenal, but they have scored only one goal more than relegation-threatened Bournemouth. They rank fourth for goals conceded, equal 13th for goals scored.

In their last ten seasons under former owner Roman Abramovich, Chelsea’s average Premier League finishing position was fourth. They averaged 16 shots per game for and ten against. This season they have averaged 11 shots per game against (hardly any more) but just 13 for (meaningfully fewer).

But even if Chelsea carry on under-achieving in attack they will not go on without scoring forever. The last time they went four games without a goal was in the middle of season 1993-94. They scored in the next game. In fact, they scored in 28 of their remaining 32 games and reached the FA Cup final.

Chelsea probably will not win the Champions League – they trail holders Real Madrid by two goals after Wednesday’s first leg in Spain – but they probably will score today at home in the Premier League, even though they face good opponents in Brighton. Based on the performances they have delivered, rather than those they should be capable of, Chelsea are still 4-11 to end their goal drought.

The relationship between the Premier League table and results

Eight of the ten Premier League games this weekend have a home team who are lower in the table than the away team.

Ground advantage in the Premier League is worth about three or four places in the table. In previous seasons in games between home teams who would finish three or four places below the away team there were as many home wins as away wins. In the last 20 completed seasons when fans were allowed in for all games there were close to 35 per cent home wins, 35 per cent away wins, 30 per cent draws.

Chelsea are four places below Brighton. They might not finish that distance apart but today, near the end of the season, the chances are probably not far from 35 per cent for a Chelsea win, 35 per cent for a Brighton win and 30 per cent for a draw.

The wider the gap in the table between away and home teams the higher the chance of an away win and the lower the chance of a draw or a home win. How quickly do those numbers move? This will help you to form an idea.

Tomorrow Arsenal play at West Ham. Arsenal are 13 places above West Ham. The results of away teams who finished 13 places above the home team were 62 per cent away wins, 19 per cent draws and 19 per cent home wins.

What about movements in the other direction? Today Manchester City play at home to Leicester. Manchester City are 17 places above Leicester. The results of home teams who finished 17 places above the away team were 87 per cent home wins, ten per cent draws and three per cent away wins.

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