What are the weak or strong points of teams at risk in the Premier League?

It is the tightest relegation race since who knows when. Four points separate the bottom nine teams in the Premier League.

Some have played one or two games more than others, but all have achieved similar results. Who deserved better, or worse? For each team I went through performance indicators other than results to see if I could find reasons for hope – or fear.

I will start at the bottom of the table and work up.

Southampton are in trouble because not enough of their shots have gone in and too many shots against them have gone in. They have the second-best shots percentage of the bottom nine. Shots percentage is a team’s attempts expressed as a proportion of all attempts in their games. It compares chances for and against, and for Southampton the comparison has been good.

They have taken nearly half the shots in their games. They have scored only a third of the goals. When that sort of thing happens there are two possible explanations: a team have bad attackers and bad defenders, or they have been unlucky. Usually it is a bit of both. Southampton must hope that to some extent they have been unlucky and their fortune will change.

Bournemouth’s cause for optimism is that somehow they still have a possibility of survival. They rank last or second-last for every stat I looked at: goals, shots, passes, possession. They even rank low on my estimates of payroll. Stats can give us an idea of whether teams got what they deserved. Payrolls tell us whether they should be capable of more than they have delivered.

West Ham are a team who by any evaluation should not be third from bottom. They have taken just over half the shots in their games, the best figure among the bottom nine. And they have done reasonably well at turning shots for into goals for and stopping shots against becoming goals against. They have the third-best goal difference among the bottom nine.

Their problem has been timing. Too few of the goals they scored, and too many of the goals they conceded, changed a result. Some might say this shows poor game management. More often, in my opinion, it suggests bad luck.

As for West Ham, even more so for Leicester. How are that pair just below and just above the relegation line?

Leicester rank second among the bottom nine for possession. They have done well with and without the ball. Their passing accuracy has been high and their opponents’ passing accuracy has been low. In other words, they have done two things creditably: developing their attacks and breaking up their opponents’ attacks. They have the joint-best goal difference among the bottom nine. Like West Ham, though, they have scored and conceded too often at suboptimal moments.

Nottingham Forest came up from the Championship last season with Bournemouth, and they have a stronger hope of staying up because now they are in a better position. They are fifth from bottom. Like Bournemouth, though, they rank last or second-last across a range of performance-gauging stats.

Forest have played 27 games and have a goal difference of –27. Leicester have played the same number of games and have a goal difference of –9. Forest’s goal difference is three times as bad as Leicester’s. Somehow Forest have one point more than Leicester.

Everton rank in the middle of the bottom nine for most things. They would rank higher for the two months since Sean Dyche became manager. Those are both promising signs. Only three teams will go down.

Everton are one of the teams who should be capable of better results than they have achieved. With Leicester and West Ham, they are probably in the top three of this group for payroll.

Six of the bottom nine have changed manager but all are still in danger of relegation. As so often happens, changing manager has not put everything right.

Leeds share the best goal difference in the bottom nine with Leicester. They rank almost as highly as Leicester for possession. But they have good possession stats mostly because of how well they have done without the ball. They have pressured opponents into lower passing accuracy. They have been successful at breaking up opposition attacks, not so successful at developing their own attacks.

Wolves have the top possession figures among the bottom nine. They have kept the ball for as long as their opponents. Like Leicester – but unlike Leeds – they have made progress with and without the ball. And as for Everton, results have improved since a change of manager. Julen Lopetegui started four months ago.

Crystal Palace’s grounds for optimism are primarily that they head the pack trying to run away from relegation. They are in front position now. They rank poorly on the performance indicators I studied, although not in the bottom three.

All of the bottom nine have between ten and 12 games to play. This weekend there will be three fixtures dubbed relegation six-pointers: Crystal Palace v Leicester, Nottingham Forest v Wolves, West Ham v Southampton. Leeds go to top-of-the-table Arsenal, Bournemouth are at home to Fulham, Everton at home to Tottenham. Who will be where they do not want to be when the season ends?

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