Streaky Inter will be hoping fortune is on their side

Inter are the biggest Champions League final betting underdogs in the last 19 seasons that Oddsportal has on record. 

The disparity in prices comes not only from Manchester City’s greatness, but also the struggles for much of the season of an Inter side who confirmed a spot in the top four of Serie A only in their penultimate match.

Earlier this season many observers had salivated at the prospect of a potential final pitching the Citizens against runaway Serie A winners Napoli, who finished 18 points ahead of Inter, but there is some cause to hope that the final might not be the foregone conclusion that many predict, as Inter’s underlying data is much closer to Napoli’s than the final table.

Expected points models based on expected goals pegs the difference between the sides as between two and four points.

Much of the chasm between the two sides was established before the World Cup break, by which time Inter were fifth, 11 points off Napoli.

They didn’t have a single draw in the league during that period, and finished the season with only three, which is the fewest stalemates a side have recorded in Italy’s top flight since Benevento in 2017-18. They’ve been a streaky side this term, often living and dying on fine margins but receiving all-or-nothing outcomes.

Before the World Cup a lot of those margins went against them, particularly defensively. They conceded 22 goals from an xG allowed of 15.9, and that difference of 6.1 was the biggest negative variance in the league according to the website fbref data. Their defensive record improved from 1.47 goals conceded per game to 0.87 in the second half of the season, but the underlying numbers stayed similar, as they just benefitted from positive regression to the mean.

They won the xG battle in eight of their 12 defeats, and it’s reasonable to think a few of those could have been draws on another day.

Their defensive numbers were decent rather than great, but at the other end of the pitch they looked stronger.

Their total of 71 goals was six fewer than Napoli, but the Nerazurri had more shots per game and those chances from open play were worth more expected goals.

The best sides usually have the best forwards when it comes to converting chances, but while Napoli cashed in, scoring 10.3 more goals than their xG, Inter’s actual and underlying numbers were dead level.

Streaky Inter collected just one point from five games from mid-March in matches either side of their Champions League ties with Porto and Benfica. They notched just two goals from 110 shots in those matches, before scoring 23 goals from their next 122 shots to end the season with seven wins in eight.

That's an extreme swing, but at least forwards Lautaro Martinez, Romelu Lukaku and Edin Dzeko are running hot when it matters.

Their one loss in the run-in was a 3-1 reverse at Napoli, where they were reduced to ten men after 41 minutes, but their form away from San Siro against the best sides is a concern. They lost to the other Champions League qualifiers and Juventus, who would have been fourth but for a ten-point deduction, by an aggregate of 11-4.

However, they’ve earned a reputation as cup specialists under manager Simone Inzaghi, winning the Supercoppa Italiana and Coppa Italia the last two seasons, on top of their run to Istanbul.

Inzaghi usually sets up with a 3-5-2 formation and will take some encouragement from Brentford doing the double over the Citizens with a similar setup and playing direct to two frontmen. Pep Guardiola has altered his defensive set-up since the first of those defeats, and the second was on the final day of the season, but there’s some sort of blueprint at least.

The riches of the Premier League mean City have much the stronger side but it’s a one-off game, and an Inter team who have frequently seen both extremes of Lady Luck this season will hope she smiles on them when it matters most.

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