Liverpool finishing strongly after tactical tweak but United still have the edge in top-four race

Liverpool were 10-1 to finish in the top four after Manchester United defeated Nottingham Forest 2-0 on April 16 to move 15 points ahead of the Reds, who are now just 7-4 as they hunt down their great rivals.

The Merseysiders have claimed six successive wins while the Red Devils have taken only four points from their last four matches so the gap is down to one point, although United have a game in hand.

Jurgen Klopp knows his side almost certainly need to win their remaining three fixtures, which would take them to 71 points – the average total posted by the team finishing fourth since 2010-11. Only three clubs amassing 71 or more points during that period have not been rewarded with a Champions League spot.

However, that is a realistic fate for Liverpool as Manchester United, despite last week's 1-0 losses at Brighton and West Ham, could afford one more slip-up and still post 72 points as long as they win their other three matches. 

Newcastle, who also gave Liverpool a top-four lifeline by losing to Arsenal last Sunday, probably need just six points from their final four fixtures due to their superior goal difference.

Handling the demands of a congested season featuring a winter World Cup was always going to be crucial to teams’ fortunes. Liverpool’s squad was ravaged by injury in the first half of the campaign but they have been more healthy, and free from cup exertions, in recent weeks, just as the busy schedule has appeared to catch up with United. 

Erik ten Hag’s side have played 57 matches this term and that workload has exposed the drop-off in certain squad positions. 

Since returning from April's international break, United have scored only two second-half goals in 11 matches. That’s bad. They created good openings in the first half against Brighton last week, and had 11 attempts in the opening 45 minutes against West Ham, but tailed off after the interval on both occasions.

Not being clinical has been a theme of United's season and their total of 49 league goals is the same number as relegation-threatened Leicester. Only three teams, all in the bottom half, have underperformed their expected-goals figure to a greater extent than the Red Devils.

They have been heavily reliant on Marcus Rashford for goals but he has scored only once in six appearances since rushing back from a groin injury.

The good news for United fans is that their players finally get a midweek off before both of their next two matches. Ten Hag allowed them two days of rest after the West Ham defeat and the last time, excluding international breaks, the whole squad had this long to recover between games was in September.

If that’s enough to recharge United's batteries, then they should get back to doing what they’ve done best this season – winning at Old Trafford. They have the best home defensive record in the division and have won their last three there to nil.

Opponents have increasingly exposed their other glaring weakness - an inability to consistently pass out from the back - by pressing them high. Newcastle and Sevilla smothered them recently but it’s harder for teams lower down the table to be brave enough to attempt that at Old Trafford and their remaining home games are against mid-table Wolves, Chelsea and Fulham. 

Chelsea figure highly in the pressing stats but are less efficient at it than they were under Thomas Tuchel and Graham Potter. And, while Fulham caused United problems in their FA Cup clash in March, the Red Devils have their first-choice midfield available again.

Liverpool’s improved run has coincided with a fitter squad and a tactical tweak which has seen Trent Alexander-Arnold move into central midfield when his side have possession. It gets Alexander-Arnold on the ball and the shape allows Liverpool to cover his side of the pitch better when things break down, shoring up one of the areas opponents used to exploit.

The Reds are a bit more structured and they are creating more than their opponents to a greater extent, with their non-penalty expected goal difference rising to +1.07 per game in matches since that tactical tweak, having been +0.34 for the season previously. It’s a significant improvement but they still aren’t the juggernaut of last season when that figure was +1.29.

Liverpool's last five wins were by one-goal margins and featured nervous moments. Their away form, ranked ninth in the division, has cost them so five of their last seven games being at Anfield has also helped them.

Mohamed Salah is back to his free-scoring best so Liverpool will hope to add to Leicester’s defensive woes at the King Power Stadium this week and their final away trip to Southampton is far from daunting.

Aston Villa could prove awkward at Anfield in between but Villa's European charge has hit the buffers recently. Even if Liverpool take maximum points from their last three fixtures, however, their fate relies on a slip-up from United, who should be refreshed after a much-needed week off.

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport