Hotshot Haaland has made City's attacking unit more predictable – but they are still hard to stop

Manchester City striker Erling Haaland bagged eight goals in his last two appearances before the international break, taking his tally for the season to 42 in 37 games in all competitions, but he is a major injury doubt for Saturday’s Premier League clash with Liverpool.

Haaland has started 25 of City’s 27 league games, also coming off the bench to score the winner against Fulham in November, and he is responsible for 28 of their 67 league goals – 42 per cent. His absence, then, would cause a change in dynamic considering City's evolution this season.

Despite Haaland's stunning goalscoring campaign, there is still a debate over whether City, collectively, are better now that they are funnelling so many of their chances to the same player instead of spreading them around.

The fiercest argument came in the aftermath of February's 1-0 defeat at Spurs as Jamie Carragher speculated on Sky Sports that the Norwegian may have picked the “wrong club” after failing to register a shot in the match. 

That came only a couple of weeks after the Citizens' defeat at Manchester United so it is worth digging into their recent record with and without Haaland against the traditional big six.

City have played seven such matches this term. The accompanying table compares the stats to the corresponding fixtures in 2021-22 although it is clearly a very small sample size and there are other confounding variables such as injuries and transfers.

City have collected one point fewer from the same set of fixtures against the big six despite scoring two more goals. They are getting notably fewer shots off but, as you would expect from a side containing Haaland, those shots are on average from better locations and converted more regularly.

Haaland has taken 23 shots in those games, 24 per cent of those taken by City, but Kevin De Bruyne, with 11, is the only other player to register a double-figure shot tally. In the same games last season six Citizens reached that mark. 

Part of the unpredictability of playing City then was not knowing who would be lining up as a false nine. Opponents know exactly what they are facing this term but have had mixed fortunes stopping it.

This season’s City are more explosive on their good days but the recipe was perhaps more successfully repeatable in the last campaign. They scored at least twice in five of the seven corresponding games in 2021-22 and were shut out only once. 

This term they’ve scored at least twice in just three of the seven and have been shut out twice, although they have beaten Manchester United 6-3 and Spurs 4-2 at home.

The drop in average possession and reduced territorial control highlighted in the table is part of the explanation. Those principles are fundamental to Pep Guardiola's style and, with Haaland having fewer touches, he has prioritised increased ball retention rather than adventure in wide areas.

February's 3-1 win at title rivals Arsenal was achieved with City's lowest share of possession since the Spaniard took over. He will probably finesse the balance at some point and they should benefit from their final three fixtures against the big six being at home.

Julian Alvarez is the most likely starter against Liverpool should Haaland miss out. Alvarez offers more potential interchangeability with the wide players but the departure of Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus, coupled with Phil Foden’s injury, mean a return to last season’s dynamic isn’t guaranteed on Saturday.

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport