Burnley lit up the Championship and could bring a smile to the Premier League

Burnley next season will be back in the Premier League. How did they get there and how will they get on?

They have 90 points now. They could become only the sixth Championship team to reach 100.

If they win all their remaining games they will get to 108. If they carry on accumulating points at the rate they have been they will finish with 104 or 103. Probably they will slow down a bit, especially if they secure first place, which could happen as early as Saturday. Two teams go up automatically but only one get medals saying they were champions. Still, I think, Burnley are likely to hit triple figures.

These are the centenarians they could join: Reading 106 points in 2005-06, Sunderland 105 points in 1998-99, Leicester 102 points in 2013-14, Newcastle 102 points in 2009-10, Fulham 101 points in 2000-01.

How many points did those teams get the following season in the Premier League? The middle number was 46. Burnley have not yet achieved as much in the Championship. I would pitch their Premier League points total a bit lower, 45 or 44.

Before this season Burnley spent six seasons in the Premier League. A middle of the range total for them was 40 points. So 44 or 45 would be an improvement on what was an impressive standard for low-budget squads. If the relationship between pay and performance was perfect, Burnley would have been relegated long before.

Burnley have surpassed reasonable expectations this season. What were those? Teams relegated from the Premier League average 71 points in the Championship. Burnley came down with an above average number of points so it would have been sensible to anticipate a higher than average number from them in the Championship, but no more than 75. They have another 15 already.

Manager Vincent Kompany has transformed Burnley’s style of play, from long ball to short passes. That did not surprise me. Managers, in my opinion, have a bigger impact on playing style than results. The playing style is easier to affect. What did surprise me is that Burnley’s results have been so good.

They achieved them in a different way from other standout Championship teams. If you compare Burnley’s goals per game for and against with those of Championship teams who gained more than 100 points you will find they are about the same. As you will with shots for and against.

The significant difference is in possession. Burnley’s attacks have been longer and their opponents’ attacks have been shorter. Burnley have averaged 64 per cent possession in Championship games. Put that figure into perspective - it is as high as for Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds in the two seasons they were in the Championship.

Bielsa from much earlier influenced Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola. Kompany played centre back for City, under Guardiola and other managers, and won the Premier League four times, the FA Cup twice and the EFL Cup four times. He tried to introduce a version of the City style of play in his first managerial job at Anderlecht. You can see it in performance stats. How were results?

In the Belgian Pro League in the two seasons before Kompany became manager Anderlecht finished sixth then eighth. With Kompany as manager they finished fourth and third. This season they are ninth. So results were worse before and have been since. Previously, though, Anderlecht almost always finished in the top four. They have won a record 34 Belgian titles.

Nobody should be astonished that Burnley this season have been pleasant on the eye. I was not shocked that they did well. I was shocked that they have done so well. Their results have been a revelation to me. They reveal that next season Burnley should have a good chance of staying in the Premier League.

And now for something completely different

Last Sunday afternoon I settled down on my sofa to watch football on television.

I tuned in a bit late to Leeds v Crystal Palace. The score was still 0-0 but soon became 1-0. The game was then 21 minutes old. I turned on the sound to hear the commentator say Leeds deserved to be ahead. Later I checked the stats and found Leeds had taken seven shots and Palace had not taken any.

Afterwards Palace took 16 shots and Leeds four. Palace scored five goals without conceding any more. They won 5-1. Wow. How a game can change.

Liverpool v Arsenal, according to what is now football folklore, turned in the 41st minute when Granit Xhaka reacted to provocation from Trent Alexander-Arnold and both were booked.

Arsenal led 2-0 but the score could have been 2-2. Liverpool had missed two good chances. The shot count then was Arsenal five, Liverpool four – pretty close. During the rest of the match – a similar length of time – Liverpool took 17 shots and Arsenal four. Liverpool scored twice to equalise and could have won.

What happens in one part of a match can be strikingly different from what happened in another. The expression "a game of two halves" is a football cliche for good reason. Little more than a quarter of Premier League and EFL games have the same goal difference in the second half as in the first. Generally speaking, the better a team did in the first half the more likely they are to do worse in the second.

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