Bukayo Saka's all-round impact makes him a worthy alternative to hotshot Haaland in PFA vote

A combination of tight Premier League title races and split voting in seasons in which a dominant team have emerged means the PFA Player of the Year has played for the title-winning team in only one of the last five seasons.

While Arsenal and Manchester City are hard to split in the title betting, Erling Haaland is 1-3 to win the PFA prize after bagging 30 goals in 27 appearances in his first Premier League season. 

The City striker is averaging a goal every 73 minutes in the league and, with nine games to come, Andy Cole and Alan Shearer’s record of 34 goals - achieved in a 42-game season - is at his mercy.

An elite finisher, Haaland has outshot his expected goals by +8.9. Only Kevin de Bruyne has exceeded that in the age of advanced stats, posting a figure of +9.3 last season, so Haaland is on track to beat that mark too.

Playing devil's advocate, it should be noted that 17 of Haaland's 30 goals came when the Citizens were already ahead. There is clearly value in extending leads to prevent opposition comebacks but seven of his goals were scored when City were already up by two or more.

Haaland is the dominant force in a team who are just 4-1 to win the Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League treble. Title rivals Arsenal, in contrast, share the spoils around and four of their players are in the top 14 for league goal contributions.

Last ten PFA Player of the Year winners

2012-13  Gareth Bale  Tottenham
2013-14 Luis Suarez  Liverpool
2014-15 Eden Hazard*  Chelsea
2015-16 Riyad Mahrez*  Leicester
2016-17 N'Golo Kante*  Chelsea
2017-18 Mohamed Salah  Liverpool
2018-19 Virgil van Dijk  Liverpool
2019-20 Kevin De Bruyne  Manchester City
2020-21 Kevin De Bruyne*  Manchester City
2021-22 Mohamed Salah  Liverpool
*Played for the champions

Bukayo Saka, 7-1 third-favourite for the PFA award, is the only player in double-figures for both goals and assists. Ten of Saka's 12 goals were game-changing - four equalisers, six goals to put them in the lead. That puts him only two behind Haaland in terms of goals that change the balance of matches and he trails the City star 10-7 for goals against top-half opponents.

Saka's all-round contribution is immense and only De Bruyne has registered more assists. The England youngster provides the outlet and the ball retention in tight spaces for Arsenal to advance and sustain attacks. He leads the league for touches in the attacking third and progressive passes received, trailing only Jack Grealish for progressive carries.

If Saka is the Gunners' final-third facilitator then captain Martin Odegaard is their conductor. Setting the tone of their play, he sees the big picture and knows when to tick over in possession and when to look for the key pass. 

Only De Bruyne has had more passes into the opposition penalty area and, although Odegaard's goals have come at less telling times than Saka's, ten strikes and seven assists is a hefty contribution.

In teams as elite as the top two it can be hard to pinpoint the most important individuals. In terms of points-per-match won, Thomas Partey (2.56), who adds crucial balance to Arsenal’s midfield, ranks top among those who have played at least 70 per cent of minutes.

Similarly, Ilkay Gundogan ranks top for xG difference as Manchester City outcreate their opponents by +1.71xG per 90 for the minutes he is on the pitch.

When it comes to individuals making an impact in more flawed teams, Tottenham's Harry Kane, with 23 goals, and Manchester United's Marcus Rashford, who has scored 15 times without being on penalty duty, deserve great credit. Their clubs have won 16 and 17 league games respectively and both scored the winner in ten of those victories – the most in the division.

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