Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Ross County 0 Asian handicap cards
1pt 1.85 bet365

It is possible that bet365 have underestimated the chance of Ross County receiving most cards in the Scottish Premiership game at Dundee.

Back Ross County 0 Asian handicap cards at decimal odds of 1.85, equivalent to the fractional price of 17-20. Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. If Ross County’s total is higher the bet will win, if both totals are the same stakes will be returned, and if Dundee’s total is higher the bet will lose.

Nearly all cards in football matches are shown for well-intentioned but mistimed attempts to recover the ball. The more defending a team have to do, therefore, the more cards they are likely to collect. The chance of teams receiving most cards, therefore, is related to the likely balance of play.

Dundee dropped to bottom of the Scottish Premiership on Tuesday despite drawing in a derby at home to United. Ross County are third from bottom with five more points having played one more game.

Bookmakers regard Dundee with ground advantage as slightly more likely to score more goals, and in that view they may be right. Odds in the result-related markets imply roughly a 40 per cent chance of a home win, a 28 per cent chance of a draw and a 32 per cent chance of an away win.

It is arguable that in previous seasons in Premiership games with similar result expectations fair decimal odds about the away team in the market 0 Asian handicap cards would typically have been shorter than 1.85. And it is debatable whether today they should be as big as 1.85.

Both Dundee and Ross County have received more cards than the opponents they were playing. This is because they have lost more games than they have won, and have spent longer defending than attacking. Their cards for and against are broadly consistent with their goals for and against.

Any distribution of cards could occur today, but it is possible that the chance of Ross County receiving most is higher than bet365’s odds anticipate.

Thought for the week

In England six Premier League teams were knocked out in the third round of the FA Cup. Three were beaten by other Premier League teams and five were from the bottom half of the table – the area from which, historically, winners have been least likely to emerge.

So 14 Premier League teams reached the fourth round, which started last night. This was fairly typical of the numbers over the previous quarter-century.

Although many people watch the FA Cup for Premier League teams to be knocked out, and nearly always see some of what they are looking for, the reality is that year after year in round after round the Premier League tends to account for an increasing proportion of the teams who are left.

Typically over the previous quarter-century, the last non-league and League Two teams went out in the fourth round, the last League One team went out in the fifth round and the last Championship team went out in the sixth round.

It is possible that those could be the cut-off points this year – even that all League One teams as well as those from lower down could be gone before the fifth round. In the finalised fourth-round draw there were 12 teams from the Championship, three from League One, one from League Two and two from below the EFL.

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