Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Where to watch

Espanyol v Valencia
Premier Sports & LaLigaTV, 1pm Sunday

Best bet

Espanyol 0 Asian handicap corners
1pt 2.025 bet365

Preview

It is possible that Espanyol are more likely than Valencia to take most corners when they play in La Liga on Sunday. So there may be value for money in backing Espanyol 0 Asian handicap corners with bet365 at decimal odds of 2.025, equivalent to a fractional price of 41-40.

If Espanyol take more corners the bet will win, if both sides take the same number stakes will be returned and if Valencia take more corners the bet will lose.

Long gone are the days when Valencia reached European finals but they are still a bigger club than Espanyol and likely to finish higher in La Liga. In recent seasons their payroll has been about 50 per cent higher.

Result-related markets for anticipate Espanyol’s ground advantage being cancelled out by Valencia’s superior ability. They suggest each team is about as likely as the other to score most goals. And they seem about right to me.

Normally in such games the home team would be more likely than the away team to take most corners.

Valencia under new manager Gennaro Gattuso have started off with mid-table results – three wins and three losses – but a lot of corners. Espanyol, also with a new manager, Diego Martinez, have started with lower-table results – one win, one draw and four losses – but also a lot of corners.

It is unlikely that over the rest of the season either team will take as many corners as they have so far. Both have taken nearly 60 per cent of the corners in their games.

We do not know which team will change most, or first, and that complicates projections for Sunday. All things considered, though, it does seem possible that Espanyol are still at least a bit more likely than Valencia to take most corners, and that the equivalent of odds-against for Espanyol to do so is worth taking.

Thought for the week

England have not won in six games. Their next game is at the World Cup. How does the run of bad results affect their chance of winning the World Cup?

In my opinion, not at all. There is no correlation I can find between progress at a European Championship or World Cup and results in qualification, pre-tournament friendlies or, nowadays, the Nations League.

England, I believe, are as likely to lift the World Cup after being relegated from their Nations League group without a win as they were after qualifying for the World Cup without a loss.

Playing at home in the past helped England. In the three tournaments they hosted they were winners, runners-up and semi-finalists. This year the World Cup is in Qatar.

The draw opened up kindly for England when they reached the semi-finals of the 1990 World Cup in Italy and the 2018 World Cup in Russia. In front of them now is what would be one of the gentlest paths to the quarter-finals in Qatar.

Before Italia 90 England drew 1-1 in Tunisia. Before reaching the semi-finals of Euro 96 they scrambled to a 1-0 win over Hong Kong Golden Select. What happens before a tournament has no discernible relation to what happens at a tournament.

England’s best player last year when they were runners-up at the delayed Euro 2020 was Raheem Sterling. Before the tournament there were calls for him to be dropped. Geoff Hurst, who scored a hat-trick in the 1966 World Cup final, was not picked until the quarter-finals.

Elsewhere today you could read articles saying the England team should be built round some players while others should be dropped. After Qatar you could read completely different verdicts on the same people.

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