Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Under 4.5 Asian total cards Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace
1pt Evs bet365

It is possible that bet365 have underestimated the chance of a low cards make-up in the Premier League game between Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace.

Back under 4.5 Asian total cards at decimal odds of 2.0, equivalent to the fractional price of evens. Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards.

Under 4.5 cards is a makeup that occurs in more than two-thirds of all Premier League games. The chance of a low make-up between Forest and Palace is smaller than it would be in most other games, but perhaps not as small as the odds suggest.

Three factors affect expectations at the City Ground.

First, the play seems likely to be closer than in most Premier League games. The result-related odds suggest so, and I think those are right. The smaller the anticipated difference in performance levels between two teams the greater the danger of a high cards makeup. This applies to all competitions in all countries, not just the Premier League.

Second, both teams have been involved in above-average numbers of high cards makeups – Forest particularly at home and Palace particularly away.

Third, referee John Brooks, a good young referee, has tended to show cards slightly more often than a typical colleague. Only slightly, but still slightly. This will be his 11th appointment across two seasons in the Premier League, but he has officiated at 176 games across seven seasons in the EFL. There will always be some differences between referees, however much they strive for uniformity in decision-making.

Five of Brooks’s ten Premier League games have featured fewer than 4.5 cards – more this season than last season – but in the EFL where his sample is much larger and card-issuing norms are similar it has happened in 112 games out of 176, which is 64 per cent.

The chance of a low card-count is worse at the City Ground than it would be on many other days in many other Premier League stadiums. Several signals are pointing in the wrong direction. There are a lot of reasons why things could turn out badly. Even so, it still seems possible that the chance of a makeup below 4.5 may be better than decimal odds of 2.0 imply.

Thought for the week

How many goals will be scored in the Premier League this weekend? There were 37 last weekend, which is a lot.

There is a great deal of variability in football, in goals and in everything else. I have written before about long-term trends around which there are short-term fluctuations.

In 12 of the last 13 Premier League seasons there were either 2.8 or 2.7 goals per game – in the other there were 2.6. After just over a third of this season there have been 2.9. So, close to a fairly well established long-term trend. But there have been huge variations from week to week.

Take last month, for instance. There were six rounds of fixtures. If there are 2.9 goals per game there will be an average of 29 goals in a round of ten games. There were 36 goals the first weekend and 34 the second weekend.

Oh, goals are going up.

Then there were 15 goals in the next round of fixtures and 13 in the one after – that contained only nine fixtures, but the total was still extremely low.

Oh, goals are going down.

Then there was a round of fixtures with 30 goals followed by another with 27. This month started last weekend with 37 goals.

In any round of fixtures there are a large number of feasible goals totals. What happens one weekend is no guide to what will happen the next. Short-term fluctuations tend to be misleading. You will be less wrong less often if your prediction is always near the long-term trend.